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How Fast Do Rational Agents Learn?

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Author Info
Vives, Xavier

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Abstract

A simple dynamic model of rational learning through market interaction by asymmetrically informed risk-neutral agents, uncertain about a valuation parameter but whose pooled information reveals it, is presented. The model is a variation of the classical partial equilibrium model of learning in rational expectations in which the market price is informative about the unknown parameter only through the actions of agents. It is found that learning from market prices and convergence to the rational expectations equilibrium is slow, at the rate l divided by [the square root of n to the l/3] (where n is the number periods of market interaction), whenever the average precision of private information in the market is finite. Copyright 1993 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 60 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 329-47
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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:60:y:1993:i:2:p:329-47

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  1. Raquel Fernandez, 2007. "Culture as Learning: The Evolution of Female Labor Force Participation over a Century," NBER Working Papers 13373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Celen, Bogachan & Hyndman, Kyle, 2006. "Endogenous Network Formation In the Laboratory," MPRA Paper 1440, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Lones Smith & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2006. "Informational Herding and Optimal Experimentation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1552, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9164, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Juan Pablo Herrera & Francisco Lozano Gerena, 2005. "Modelo de manadas y aprendizaje social," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 7(13), pages 133-157, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
  6. Jianbo Zhang & Zhentang Zhang, 1999. "Asymptotic Efficiency in Stackelberg Markets with Incomplete Information," CIG Working Papers FS IV 99-07, Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin (WZB), Research Unit: Competition and Innovation (CIG). [Downloadable!]
  7. Lars P. Feld & Benno Torgler & Bin Ding, 2008. "Coming Closer? Tax Morale, Deterrence and Social Learning after German Unification," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 232, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology, revised 16 Jun 2008. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Roger Guesnerie & Gabriel Desgranges, 2004. "Eductive stable transmission of information though prices: A brief review of results," DELTA Working Papers 2004-23, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
  9. Maik Heinemann, 2003. "Are Rational Expectations Equilibria with Private Information Eductively Stable?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 267, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Guesnerie, R., 1999. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," DELTA Working Papers 1999-06, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 2005. "Information Cascades and Observational Learning," Working Paper Series 2005-22, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics. [Downloadable!]
  12. Laura L. Veldkamp, 2006. "Media Frenzies in Markets for Financial Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 577-601, June. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Dominic Rohner & Anna Winestein & Bruno S. Frey, 2006. "Ich bin auch ein Lemming: Herding and Consumption Capital in Arts and Culture," CREMA Working Paper Series 2006-05, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA). [Downloadable!]
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  14. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-70, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Gabriel Desgranges, 2000. "CK-Equilibria and Informational Efficiency in a Competitive Economy," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1296, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  16. Bru, Lluís & Vives, Xavier, 2001. "Informational Externalities, Herding and Incentives," CEPR Discussion Papers 3080, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. George-Marios Angeletos & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Policy with Dispersed Information," NBER Working Papers 13590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Fernández, Raquel, 2007. "Culture as Learning: The Evolution of Female Labour Force Participation Over a Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 6451, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Maik Heinemann, 2007. "E–stability and stability of adaptive learning in models with asymmetric information," Working Paper Series in Economics 69, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Ephraim W. Chirwa & Yohane Anthony Khamfula & Montfort Mlachila, 2006. "Donor Herding and Domestic Debt Crisis," IMF Working Papers 06/109, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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