Semi-parametric Estimation and the Predictability of Stock Market Returns: Some Lessons from Japan
AbstractThis paper attempts to explore whether lagged variables that help predict stock returns are merely proxying for mismeasured risk. Therefore, three different ways of measuring risk are employed (i.e., semiparametric, GARCH, and lagged squared returns). In an application to Japanese data, four key predictor variables are shown to have nontrivial additional forecasting power irrespective of how they measure risk. Interestingly, unlike the United States, the level of the lagged dividend yield is not positively correlated with returns in either Japan or South Korea. Copyright 1991 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Economic Studies.
Volume (Year): 58 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0034-6527
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Benoit Perron, 2003.
"Semiparametric Weak-Instrument Regressions with an Application to the Risk-Return Tradeoff,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 424-443, May.
- PERRON, Benoît, 1999. "Semi-Parametric Weak Instrument Regressions with an Application to the Risk-Return Trade-off," Cahiers de recherche 9901, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Benoit Perron, 2000. "Semi-Parametric Weak Instrument Regressions with an Application to the Risk-return Trade-off," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1576, Econometric Society.
- Benoit Perron, 2002. "Semi-Parametric Weak Instrument Regressions with an Application to the Risk-Return Trade-off," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-88, CIRANO.
- Peter Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Financial Asset Returns, Market Timing, and Volatility Dynamics," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-02, CIRANO.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2006.
"Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics,"
INFORMS, vol. 52(8), pages 1273-1287, August.
- Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2003. "Financial asset returns, direction-of-change forecasting, and volatility dynamics," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X.Diebold, 2003. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-009, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marquering, W. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2000.
"The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility,"
2000-78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Marquering, Wessel & Verbeek, Marno, 2004. "The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(02), pages 407-429, June.
- Marquering, W.A. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2001. "The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2001-75-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
- Wessel Marquering & Marno Verbeek, 2000. "The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces0020, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
- Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991.
"Recent developments in modeling volatility in financial data,"
1991-68, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C., 1991. "Recent Developments in Modeling Volatility in Financial Data," Papers 9168, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Hallam, Arne, 1992. "A Brief Overview Of Nonparametric Methods In Economics," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 21(2), October.
- Jonathan Manton & Anton Muscatelli & Vikram Krishnamurthy & Stan Hurn, . "Modelling Stock Market Excess Returns by Markov Modulated Gaussian Noise," Working Papers 9806, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.