AbstractThis paper presents evidence on the characteristic speculative dynamics of returns on stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, real estate, collectibles, and precious metals. It highlights four stylized facts. First, returns tend to be positively serially correlated at high frequency. Second, they are weakly negatively serially correlated over long horizons. Third, deviations of asset values from proxies for fundamental value have predictive power for returns. Fourth, short term interest rates are negatively correlated with excess returns on other assets. The similarity of the results across markets suggest that they may be due to inherent features of the speculative process. Copyright 1991 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Economic Studies.
Volume (Year): 58 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0034-6527
Other versions of this item:
- David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "Speculative Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 3242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Culter, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "Speculative Dynamics," Working papers 544, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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- James Poterba in Wikipedia (German)
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