Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal
AbstractThis paper presents and implements statistical tests of stock-market forecastability and volatility that are immune from the severe statistical problems of earlier tests. It finds that although the null hypothesis of market efficiency is rejected, the rejections are only marginal. The paper also shows how volatility tests and recent regression tests are closely related, and demonstrates that when finite sample biases are taken into account, regression tests also fail to provide strong evidence of violations of the conventional valuation model. Copyright 1991 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Economic Studies.
Volume (Year): 58 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0034-6527
Other versions of this item:
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David H. Romer & Matthew D. Shapiro, 1989. "Stock Market Forecastability and Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," NBER Working Papers 3154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mankiw, N.G. & Romer, D. & Shapiro, M.D., 1989. "Stock Market Forecastability And Volatility: A Statistical Appraisal," Papers 89-21, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
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