The Lucas Critique, Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria
AbstractThe Lucas critique of econometric policy evaluation argues that the parameters of econometric models are subject to theoretical cross-equation restrictions that follow from the fact that the endogenous variables of the models are chosen optimally by forward-looking agents. In this paper, the author argues that these facts alone are insufficient to generate such restrictions. He presents an example of a model in which there exist multiple stationary rational expectations equilibria, one of which is supported by a process-invariant forecast rule. Immunity to the Lucas critique is proposed as a selection criterion in models with multiple equilibria. Copyright 1991 by The Review of Economic Studies Limited.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Economic Studies.
Volume (Year): 58 (1991)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0034-6527
Other versions of this item:
- Roger E.A. Farmer, 1989. "The Lucas Critique Policy Invariance and Multiple Equilibria," UCLA Economics Working Papers 551, UCLA Department of Economics.
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