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Estimating Distributed Lags in Short Panels with an Application to the Specification of Depreciation Patterns and Capital Stock Constructs

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  • Pakes, Ariel
  • Griliches, Zvi

Abstract

In this paper, we investigate the problem of estimating distributed lags in short panels. Estimates of the parameter of distributed lag relationships based on single time-series of observations have been usually rather imprecise. The promise of panel data is in the N repetitions of the time-series that it contains which should allow one to estimate the identified lag parameters with greater precision. On the other hand, panels tend to track their observations only over a relatively short time interval. Thus, some assumptions will have to be made on the contribution of the unobserved presample x's to the current values of y before any lag parameters can be identified from such data. In this paper we suggest two such assumptions; both of which are, at least in part, testable, and outline appropriate estimation techniques. The first places reasonable restrictions on the relationship between the presample and in sample x's while the second imposes conventional functional form constraints on the lag coefficients. The paper concludes with an example which investigates empirically how to construct a "capital stock" for profit or rate of return regressions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 51 (1984)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 243-62

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Handle: RePEc:bla:restud:v:51:y:1984:i:2:p:243-62

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  1. White, Halbert, 1980. "Nonlinear Regression on Cross-Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(3), pages 721-46, April.
  2. Geweke, John & Meese, Richard, 1981. "Estimating regression models of finite but unknown order," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 162-162, May.
  3. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  4. Lawrence R. Klein, 1957. "The Estimation of Distributed Lags," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 34, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "Multivariate regression models for panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 5-46, January.
  6. White, Halbert, 1980. "Using Least Squares to Approximate Unknown Regression Functions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(1), pages 149-70, February.
  7. Maddala, G S & Rao, A S, 1971. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Solow's and Jorgenson's Distributed Lag Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(1), pages 80-88, February.
  8. MaCurdy, Thomas E., 1982. "The use of time series processes to model the error structure of earnings in a longitudinal data analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 83-114, January.
  9. Nerlove, Marc, 1972. "Lags in Economic Behavior," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 40(2), pages 221-51, March.
  10. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
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