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Submarket Dynamics of Time to Sale

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  • Gwilym Pryce
  • Kenneth Gibb
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    Abstract

    We argue that the rush to apply multiple regression estimation to time on the market (TOM) durations may have led to important details and idiosyncrasies in local housing market dynamics being overlooked. What is needed is a more careful examination of the fundamental properties of time to sale data. The approach promoted and presented here, therefore, is to provide an examination of housing sale dynamics using a step-by-step approach. We present three hypotheses about TOM: (i) there is nonmonotonic duration dependence in the hazard of sale, (ii) the hazard curve will vary both over time and across intra-urban areas providing evidence of the existence of submarkets and (iii) institutional idiosyncrasies can have a profound effect on the shape and position of the hazard curve. We apply life tables, kernel-smoothed hazard functions and likelihood ratio tests for homogeneity to a large Scottish data set to investigate these hypotheses. Our findings have important implications for TOM analysis. Copyright 2006 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (09)
    Pages: 377-415

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:34:y:2006:i:3:p:377-415

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    Cited by:
    1. Erik R. de Wit & Bas van der Klaauw, 2010. "Asymmetric Information and List Price Reductions in the Housing Market," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-038/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Paul K. Asabere & Forrest Huffman, 2008. "FHA/VA Financing and Price Discounts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 191-206.
    3. de Wit, Erik R. & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2013. "Asymmetric information and list-price reductions in the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 507-520.
    4. Erik R. de Wit, 2010. "Competing Risks in a Time on the Market Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-108/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    5. Marco Hoeberichts & Maarten van Rooij & Arjen Siegmann, 2008. "Market Thinness, List Price Revisions and Time to Sell: Evidence from a large-scale housing dataset," DNB Working Papers 176, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Liv Osland & Kenneth Gibb & Gwilym Pryce, 2011. "Inequalities in Access to Employment and the Impact on Wellbeing: A Criterion for Spatial Planning?," ERSA conference papers ersa10p717, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Stanley McGreal & Alastair Adair & Louise Brown & James R. Webb, 2009. "Pricing and Time on the Market for Residential Properties in a Major U.K. City," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(2), pages 209-234.

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