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Submarket Dynamics of Time to Sale

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Author Info
Gwilym Pryce
Kenneth Gibb
Abstract

We argue that the rush to apply multiple regression estimation to time on the market (TOM) durations may have led to important details and idiosyncrasies in local housing market dynamics being overlooked. What is needed is a more careful examination of the fundamental properties of time to sale data. The approach promoted and presented here, therefore, is to provide an examination of housing sale dynamics using a step-by-step approach. We present three hypotheses about TOM: (i) there is nonmonotonic duration dependence in the hazard of sale, (ii) the hazard curve will vary both over time and across intra-urban areas providing evidence of the existence of submarkets and (iii) institutional idiosyncrasies can have a profound effect on the shape and position of the hazard curve. We apply life tables, kernel-smoothed hazard functions and likelihood ratio tests for homogeneity to a large Scottish data set to investigate these hypotheses. Our findings have important implications for TOM analysis. Copyright 2006 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

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Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 377-415
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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:34:y:2006:i:3:p:377-415

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  1. Stanley McGreal & Alastair Adair & Louise Brown & James R. Webb, 2009. "Pricing and Time on the Market for Residential Properties in a Major U.K. City," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 31(2), pages 209-234. [Downloadable!]
  2. Paul K. Asabere & Forrest Huffman, 2008. "FHA/VA Financing and Price Discounts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(2), pages 191-206. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marco Hoeberichts & Maarten van Rooij & Arjen Siegmann, 2008. "Market Thinness, List Price Revisions and Time to Sell: Evidence from a large-scale housing dataset," DNB Working Papers 176, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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