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An Empirical Test of a Two-Factor Mortgage Valuation Model: How Much Do House Prices Matter?

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  • Chris Downing
  • Richard Stanton
  • Nancy Wallace
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    Abstract

    This article develops a two-factor structural mortgage pricing model in which rational mortgage-holders choose when to prepay and default in response to changes in both interest rates and house prices. We estimate the model using comprehensive data on the pool-level termination rates for Freddie Mac Participation Certificates issued between 1991 and 2002. The model exhibits a statistically and economically significant improvement over the nested one-factor (interest-rate only) model in its ability to match historical prepayment data. Moreover, the two-factor model produces origination prices that are significantly closer to those quoted in the to-be-announced market than the one-factor model. Our results have important implications for hedging mortgage-backed securities. Copyright 2005 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 4 (December)
    Pages: 681-710

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:33:y:2005:i:4:p:681-710

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    Cited by:
    1. Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2012. "Estimating Loan-to-Value and Foreclosure Behavior," NBER Working Papers 17882, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Sumit Agarwal & Richard J. Rosen & Vincent Yao, 2013. "Why do borrowers make mortgage refinancing mistakes?," Working Paper Series WP-2013-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    3. Sumit Agarwal & John C Driscoll & David Laibson, 2008. "Optimal Mortgage Refinancing: A Closed Form Solution," Levine's Working Paper Archive 122247000000002021, David K. Levine.
    4. Manuel Adelino & Antoinette Schoar & Felipe Severino, 2012. "Credit Supply and House Prices: Evidence from Mortgage Market Segmentation," NBER Working Papers 17832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Nikolai Roussanov & Michael Michaux & Hui Chen, 2011. "Houses as ATMs? Mortgage Refinancing and Macroeconomic Uncertainty," 2011 Meeting Papers 1369, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Nicholas Sharp & Paul Johnson & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2009. "A New Prepayment Model (with Default): An Occupation-time Derivative Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 118-145, August.
    7. Nicholas Sharp & David Newton & Peter Duck, 2008. "An Improved Fixed-Rate Mortgage Valuation Methodology with Interacting Prepayment and Default Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 307-342, April.
    8. Giulia De Rossi & Tiziano Vargiolu, 2010. "Optimal prepayment and default rules for mortgage-backed securities," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 23-47, May.
    9. Gang-Zhi Fan & Ming Pu & Seow Ong, 2012. "Optimal Portfolio Choices, House Risk Hedging and the Pricing of Forward House Transactions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, June.
    10. William N. Goetzmann & Liang Peng & Jacqueline Yen, 2009. "The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation," NBER Working Papers 15334, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C., 2013. "Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 29-45.
    12. Xin Wang & Chris Downing, 2005. "Optimal Capital Structure and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 38, Society for Computational Economics.
    13. John Krainer & Stephen F. LeRoy & Munpyung O, 2009. "Mortgage default and mortgage valuation," Working Paper Series 2009-20, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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