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Optimal Valuation of Claims on Noisy Real Assets: Theory and an Application

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  • Paul D. Childs
  • Steven H. Ott
  • Timothy J. Riddiough
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    Abstract

    A theory for valuing claims on noisy real assets is developed and applied. Central to the theory is determination of the dynamics for the best estimate of real asset value. The dynamics of the value estimate are shown to differ from the dynamics of the true asset value only in the arrival rate of information. The rate of information arrival in the value estimate can be faster or slower than information arrival in the true asset value, which can lead to unexpected outcomes in the valuation and exercise of options on noisy real assets. The theory we develop is illustrated through an application. An imperfectly competitive market for real estate development is examined, in which agents compete over the timing of lead investment. Information spillover and free-rider incentives are shown to cause significant delay in lead investment. Delay together with a competitive response once lead investment has occurred explain observed patterns of development in gentrified urban land markets and multistage development projects. Copyright 2002 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association..

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 415-443

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:30:y:2002:i:3:p:415-443

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    Cited by:
    1. Su Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2012. "Presale Contract and its Embedded Default and Abandonment Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 116-152, January.
    2. Martzoukos, Spiros H & Zacharias, Eleftherios, 2008. "Real Option Games with R&D and Learning Spillovers," MPRA Paper 12686, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. YongQiang Chu & Tien Sing, 2007. "Optimal Timing of Real Estate Investment under an Asymmetric Duopoly," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 327-345, April.
    4. Robert Fourt & Gianluca Marcato & Charles Ward, 2007. "Real Option Pricing in Mixed-use Development Projects," Real Estate & Planning Working Papers rep-wp2007-09, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    5. W. Hughen & Dustin Read, 2014. "Inclusionary Housing Policies, Stigma Effects and Strategic Production Decisions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 589-610, May.
    6. Steven Ott & W. Hughen & Dustin Read, 2012. "Optimal Phasing and Inventory Decisions for Large-Scale Residential Development Projects," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 888-918, November.

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