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Housing Price Volatility Changes and Their Effects

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  • Walter Dolde
  • Dogan Tirtiroglu
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    Abstract

    We examine significant volatility shifts in regional housing price changes, adapting a method of Haugen, Talmor and Torous (1991) independent of predefined sampling blocks. We identify 36 volatility events, most of which are purely regional, but three of which are national. We find significant associations of volatility events and economic conditions, especially national and regional income growth, inflation, and interest rates. During an initial adjustment period after a volatility shift, realized housing returns move opposite to volatility. We find evidence of significant interregional diffusion of volatility increases, but not of decreases. New insights on links between economic conditions and housing volatility and returns should be of value to household investors and mortgage investors. Copyright 2002 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

    Volume (Year): 30 (2002)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 41-66

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:30:y:2002:i:1:p:41-66

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    Cited by:
    1. Hong Miao & Sanjay Ramchander & Marc W. Simpson, 2011. "Return and Volatility Transmission in U.S. Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(4), pages 701-741, December.
    2. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2003. "Pricing Factors in Real Estate Markets: A Simple Preference Based Approach," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 102-120.
    3. Simlai, Prodosh, 2014. "Estimation of variance of housing prices using spatial conditional heteroskedasticity (SARCH) model with an application to Boston housing price data," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 17-30.
    4. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2010. "House price dynamics, conditional higher-order moments, and density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1029-1039, September.
    5. Norman Miller & Liang Peng, 2006. "Exploring Metropolitan Housing Price Volatility," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 5-18, August.

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