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Market Efficiency and Return Statistics: Evidence from Real Estate and Stock Markets Using a Present-Value Approach

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Author Info
Yuming Fu
Lilian K. Ng
Abstract

This paper develops a methodology to identify asset price response to news in the framework of the Campbell-Shiller log-linear present-value equation. We further show that a slow price adjustment in real estate markets not only induces a high serial autocorrelation in excess returns, but also dampens the return volatility and the correlation with excess returns in other asset markets. Using Hong Kong real estate and stock market data, we find that the quarterly real estate price assimilates only about half the effect of market news, whereas the quarterly stock price incorporates the news fully. Our analysis identifies a cumulative price adjustment that recovers lost information in real estate returns due to market inefficiency and thereby restores the real estate return volatility and the correlation between real estate and stock markets. Copyright 2001 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1080-8620.00009
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 29 (2001)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 227-250
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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:29:y:2001:i:2:p:227-250

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  1. Sichong Chen, 2008. "Exploring the driving force and price adjustment of the J-REIT market," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 7(4), pages 1-9. [Downloadable!]
  2. Elias Oikarinen, 2006. "Price Linkages between Stock, Bond and Housing Markets - Evidence from Finnish Data," Discussion Papers 1004, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  3. Yuming Fu & Maarten Jennen, 2009. "Office Construction in Singapore and Hong Kong: Testing Real Option Implications," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 39-58, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Kevin Chiang, 2009. "Discovering REIT Price Discovery: A New Data Setting," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 74-91, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sherry Zhefang ZHOU & Helen Xiaohui BAO, 2009. "Modelling Price Dynamics In The Hong Kong Property Market," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 4(1S), pages 8-26, April. [Downloadable!]
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