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Construction Cycles in the United States Since World War II

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  • Leo Grebler
  • Leland S. Burns
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    Abstract

    The article analyzes the cycles of total construction and its major sectors after adjustment for the varying growth trends of real expenditures. Fluctuations in GNP and business fixed investment serve as "reference cycles." The findings elucidate the relationships between cycles in total construction and its components and between construction and GNP cycles. Special analyses are devoted to the movements of public versus private construction expenditures and to the "countercyclical" behavior of residential building. The paper shows increasing volatility of private construction over time and substantial inter-sector differences in average volatility. Although public policies have a strong potential influence on the cyclical performance of construction, the complexities revealed in the study indicate severe problems in attempts to stabilize its output. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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    File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1540-6229.00260
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

    Volume (Year): 10 (1982)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 123-151

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:10:y:1982:i:2:p:123-151

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    Cited by:
    1. Lynne B. Sagalyn, 1990. "Real Estate Risk and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Security Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 5(2), pages 203-220.
    2. Waldo L. Born & Stephen A. Pyhrr, 1994. "Real Estate Valuation: The Effect of Market and Property Cycles," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(4), pages 455-486.
    3. Dall'Olio, Andrea & Iootty, Mariana & Kanehira, Naoto & Saliola, Federica, 2013. "Productivity growth in Europe," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6425, The World Bank.
    4. Yoon Dokko & Robert H. Edelstein & Allan J. Lacayo & Daniel C. Lee, 1999. "Real Estate Income and Value Cycles: A Model of Market Dynamics," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 69-96.
    5. Thomas E. McCue & John L. Kling, 1994. "Real Estate Returns and the Macroeconomy: Some Empirical Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trust," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 277-288.

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