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Takeoffs

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  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Mark M. Spiegel

Abstract

This paper identifies factors associated with takeoff-a sustained period of high growth following a period of stagnation. Countries that experience takeoffs average 2.3% annual growth following their stagnation episodes, while those that do not average 0%. Using probit, we find that de jure trade openness is positively and significantly associated with takeoffs. A one-standard-deviation increase in de jure trade openness is associated with a 55% increase in the probability of a takeoff in our default specification. Capital account openness encourages takeoff responses, but measures of de facto trade openness are found to be poor predictors of takeoffs. We also examine the determinants of nations achieving "sustained" takeoffs; i.e. those lasting eight years or longer. Takeoffs in countries with more commodity-intensive output bundles are less likely to be sustained, suggesting that adverse terms-of-trade shocks may play a role in ending long-term high growth episodes. Copyright � 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 14 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
Pages: 177-196

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Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:14:y:2010:i:2:p:177-196

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  1. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
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  10. William Easterly, 2005. "Reliving the '50s: The Big Push, Poverty Traps, and Takeoffs in Economic Development," Working Papers 65, Center for Global Development.
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