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The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience

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  • Mumtaz Hussain
  • Andrew Berg
  • Shekhar Aiyar

Abstract

The authors investigate the macroeconomic challenges created by a surge in aid inflows. They develop an analytical framework for examining possible policy responses to increased aid, in terms of absorption and spending of aid-where the central bank controls absorption, through monetary policy and the sale of foreign exchange, and where the fiscal authority controls spending. Different combinations of absorption and spending lead to different macroeconomic consequences. Evidence from five countries that recently experienced an aid surge (Ethiopia, Ghana, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Uganda) shows no support for aid-related real exchange rate appreciation in these countries, but it does indicate that the fear of Dutch disease played an important part in the policy reaction to aid surges. Fiscal and monetary authorities should coordinate their responses to an aid surge, because an uncoordinated response-typically when the fiscal authority wants to spend aid while the central bank wants to avoid exchange rate appreciation-can have serious negative macroeconomic consequences. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2009)
Issue (Month): s1 (08)
Pages: 491-509

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Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:13:y:2009:i:s1:p:491-509

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1363-6669

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  1. Adam, Christopher S. & Buffie, Edward & O'Connell, Stephen & Pattillo, Catherine, 2008. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," Working Paper Series RP2008/77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  2. A. Javier Hamann & Ales Bulir, 2006. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan Into the Fire?," IMF Working Papers 06/65, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
  4. Arellano, Cristina & Bulír, Ales & Lane, Timothy & Lipschitz, Leslie, 2009. "The dynamic implications of foreign aid and its variability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 87-102, January.
  5. Martin Brownbridge & Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile, 2007. "Aid and Fiscal Deficits: Lessons from Uganda on the Implications for Macroeconomic Management and Fiscal Sustainability," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 25(2), pages 193-213, 03.
  6. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 4.
  7. Catherine A. Pattillo & Stephen A. O'Connell & Christopher Adam & Edward F. Buffie, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Working Papers 04/216, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Andrew Berg & Mumtaz Hussain & Shaun K. Roache & Amber Mahone & Tokhir N. Mirzoev & Shekhar Aiyar, 2007. "The Macroeconomics of Scaling Up Aid: Lessons from Recent Experience," IMF Occasional Papers 253, International Monetary Fund.
  9. McGillivray, Mark & Morrissey, Oliver, 2001. "Fiscal Effects of Aid," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  10. Alexander Pivovarsky & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Erwin Tiongson, 2003. "Foreign Aid and Revenue Response: Does the Composition of Aid Matter?," IMF Working Papers 03/176, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Jarotschkin, Alexandra & Kraay, Aart, 2013. "Aid, disbursement delays, and the real exchange rate," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6501, The World Bank.
  2. Pedro M G Martins, . "Fiscal Dynamics in Ethiopia: A Cointegrated VAR Model with Quarterly Data," Discussion Papers 10/05, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
  3. Bwire, Thomas & Morrissey, Oliver & Lloyd, Tim, 2013. "Foreign aid, public sector and private consumption: A cointegrated vector autoregressive approach," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  4. Chance Mwabutwa & Nicola Viegi & Manoel Bittencourt, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Capital Inflows in Form of Foreign Aid in Malawi," Working Papers 201232, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  5. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Fiscal Dynamics in Ethiopia: The Cointegrated VAR Model with Quarterly Data," Working Paper Series 0910, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  6. Andrea F. Presbitero, 2012. "Domestic debt in Low-Income Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1099-1112.
  7. Bwire, Thomas & Morrissey, Oliver & Lloyd, Tim, 2013. "A timeseries analysis of the impact of foreign aid on central government.s fiscal budget in Uganda," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  8. Combes, Jean-Louis & Kinda, Tidiane & Plane, Patrick, 2012. "Capital flows, exchange rate flexibility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1034-1043.
  9. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2010. "Aid Absorption and Spending in Africa: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Working Paper Series 1010, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  10. Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "Aid and Vulnerability," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 88, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
  11. Pedro M G Martins, . "Aid Absorption and Spending in Africa: A Panel Cointegration Approach," Discussion Papers 10/06, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.

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