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Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa

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  • Christopher Adam
  • Stephen O'Connell
  • Edward Buffie
  • Catherine Pattillo

Abstract

This paper examines the properties of alternative monetary policy rules in response to large aid surges in low-income countries characterized by incomplete capital market integration and currency substitution. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, it is shown that simple monetary rules that stabilize the path of expected future seigniorage for a given aid flow have attractive properties relative to a range of conventional alternatives, including those involving heavy reliance on bond sterilization or a commitment to a pure exchange rate float. These simple rules, which are shown to be robust across a range of fiscal responses to aid inflows, appear to be consistent with actual responses to recent aid surges in a range of post-stabilization countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Review of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 13 (2009)
Issue (Month): s1 (08)
Pages: 464-490

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Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:13:y:2009:i:s1:p:464-490

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References

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  1. Adam, Christopher S. & Buffie, Edward & O'Connell, Stephen & Pattillo, Catherine, 2008. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," Working Paper Series RP2008/77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  2. Sanjeev Gupta & Catherine A. Pattillo & Smita Wagh, 2006. "Are Donor Countries Giving More or Less Aid?," IMF Working Papers 06/1, International Monetary Fund.
  3. A. Javier Hamann & Ales Bulir, 2006. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan Into the Fire?," IMF Working Papers 06/65, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Targeting the real exchange rate: theory and evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 97-133, June.
  5. Edward Buffie & Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Catherine Patillo, 2006. "Riding the Wave: Monetary Responses to Aid Surges in Low-Income Countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-04, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  6. Martin Brownbridge & Emmanuel Tumusiime-Mutebile, 2007. "Aid and Fiscal Deficits: Lessons from Uganda on the Implications for Macroeconomic Management and Fiscal Sustainability," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 25(2), pages 193-213, 03.
  7. Sanjeev Gupta & Catherine Pattillo & Smita Wagh, 2006. "Are Donor Countries Giving More or Less Aid?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 535-552, 08.
  8. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  9. Edward Buffie & Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Catherine Pattillo, 2004. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Management of Official and Private Capital Flows in Africa," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(s1), pages 126-160, June.
  10. Buffie, Edward F. & O'Connell, Stephen A. & Adam, Christopher, 2010. "Fiscal inertia, donor credibility, and the monetary management of aid surges," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 287-298, November.
  11. Juillard, Michel, 1996. "Dynare : a program for the resolution and simulation of dynamic models with forward variables through the use of a relaxation algorithm," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9602, CEPREMAP.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ruslan Aliyev, 2012. "Monetary Policy in Resource-Rich Developing Economies," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp466, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economic Institute, Prague.
  2. Adam, Christopher S. & Buffie, Edward & O'Connell, Stephen & Pattillo, Catherine, 2008. "Monetary Policy Rules for Managing Aid Surges in Africa," Working Paper Series RP2008/77, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  3. Aiyar, Shekhar & Berg, Andrew & Hussain, Mumtaz, 2008. "The Macroeconomic Management of Increased Aid: Policy Lessons from Recent Experience," Working Paper Series RP2008/79, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  4. Senbeta, Sisay, 2011. "A small open economy New Keynesian model for a foreign exchange constrained economy," MPRA Paper 29996, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2013. "Foreign exchange constraints and macroeconomic dynamics in a small open economy," Working Papers 2013023, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  6. Regassa Senbeta S., 2011. "How applicable are the New Keynesian DSGE models to a typical Low-Income Economy?," Working Papers 2011016, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  7. Christopher Adam, 2006. "Riding the Wave: Monetary Responses to Aid Surges in Low-Income Countries," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2006-04, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Christopher Adam & Stephen O'Connell & Edward Buffie, 2008. "Aid volatility, monetary policy rules and the capital account in African economies," WEF Working Papers 0037, ESRC World Economy and Finance Research Programme, Birkbeck, University of London.
  9. Jan Kees Martijn & Markus Berndt & Abu Shonchoy & Paolo Dudine, 2008. "The Spending and Absorption of Aid in PRGF Supported Programs," IMF Working Papers 08/237, International Monetary Fund.
  10. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2012. "How important are external shocks in explaining growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2012010, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  11. KAMGNA, Severin Yves & Ndambendia, Houdou, 2008. "Excès de liquidité systémique et effectivité de la politique monétaire : cas des pays de la CEMAC
    [Excess liquidity and monetary policy effectiveness: The case of CEMAC countries]
    ," MPRA Paper 9599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Chance Mwabutwa & Nicola Viegi & Manoel Bittencourt, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Capital Inflows in Form of Foreign Aid in Malawi," Working Papers 201232, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  13. Regassa Senbeta S., 2011. "A Small Open Economy New Keynesian DSGE model for a foreign exchange constrained economy," Working Papers 2011004, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.

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