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Urban sprawl and municipal budgets in Spain: A dynamic panel data analysis

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  • Miriam Hortas-Rico

Abstract

type="main" xml:lang="es"> La dispersión urbana se ha convertido recientemente en un tema preocupante en toda Europa, pero es en los países del sur donde ha sido más grave su impacto ambiental y económico. Este patrón de desarrollo urbano de expansión espacial de baja densidad puede tener un impacto muy marcado en los presupuestos municipales. Por lo tanto, los gobiernos locales pueden ver la dispersión como una fuente potencial de financiación, en términos de ingresos asociados a la construcción y al aumento de transferencias desde los niveles superiores de gobierno. Al mismo tiempo, la dispersión conduce a mayores niveles de gasto, ya que puede aumentar los costos de provisión de ciertos bienes públicos locales y requerir una mayor inversión en la ampliación de la infraestructura básica para el nuevo desarrollo urbano. Por tanto, ¿cuál es el impacto fiscal neto de la dispersión urbana? ¿Consideran los gobiernos locales el impacto fiscal neto a largo plazo del nuevo crecimiento urbano o simplemente se preocupan de los beneficios a corto plazo, haciendo caso omiso de los costos futuros de desarrollo? Este artículo aborda estas preguntas mediante el análisis de la relación dinámica entre la dispersión urbana y las variables del presupuesto local. Para ello, estimamos un modelo de vectores autorregresivos para datos de panel mediante el empleo de datos de 4.000 municipios españoles para el período 1994–2005. El computo de funciones de impulso-respuesta generalizadas muestra: (i) que la dispersión aumenta considerablemente la demanda de nueva infraestructura; (ii) que el déficit de capital generado por esta nueva infraestructura está sufragado en su mayor parte por transferencias intergubernamentales y, en menor medida, por los ingresos vinculados al ciclo inmobiliario; y (iii) que la dispersión lleva a un superávit corriente a corto plazo, ya que el aumento de los ingresos corrientes compensa el aumento de los gastos corrientes, debido a la provisión de servicios públicos para las nuevas zonas urbanizadas. En conjunto, estos hallazgos apuntan a un conflicto moral para los gobiernos locales debido a que las transferencias intergubernamentales desmesuradas y los ingresos del desarrollo inmobiliario fomentan una excesiva dispersión urbana.

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  • Miriam Hortas-Rico, 2014. "Urban sprawl and municipal budgets in Spain: A dynamic panel data analysis," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(4), pages 843-864, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:93:y:2014:i:4:p:843-864
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    JEL classification:

    • H1 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • R51 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Finance in Urban and Rural Economies

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