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HIV/AIDS and Cross‐National Convergence in Life Expectancy

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  • Eric Neumayer

Abstract

This article analyzes the effect of HIV/AIDS on the cross‐national convergence in life expectancy as well as infant and child survival rates by comparing three scenarios. One is based on historical and future best‐guess estimated values given the existence of the epidemic. The second scenario assumes that the effect of the epidemic is much worse than expected. The final scenario is based on hypothetical values derived from estimations where the mortality caused by the epidemic is removed. For life expectancy, convergence becomes stalled in the late 1980s (without weighting by country population size) or 1990s (with weighting). Convergence in infant and child survival rates does not become stalled, but slows down. These results are mainly attributable to the epidemic since all signs of stalled convergence or even divergence disappear in the “No AIDS scenario.” Given the existence of the epidemic, however, the reduced degree of inequality in life expectancy attained by 1985 is only expected to be achieved again by 2015 at the earliest. If the epidemic turns out much worse than expected, divergence could continue to 2050. No divergence is to be expected in infant and child survival rates in any of the scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric Neumayer, 2004. "HIV/AIDS and Cross‐National Convergence in Life Expectancy," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(4), pages 727-742, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:30:y:2004:i:4:p:727-742
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2004.00039.x
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    3. Clark, Rob, 2011. "World health inequality: Convergence, divergence, and development," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 72(4), pages 617-624, February.
    4. Srinivas, Goli, 2014. "Demographic convergence and its linkage with health inequalities in India," MPRA Paper 79823, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Dec 2014.
    5. Giuseppe Gabrielli & Anna Paterno & Silvana Salvini & Isabella Corazziari, 2021. "Demographic trends in less and least developed countries: Convergence or divergence?," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 221-258, September.
    6. Srinivas Goli & Moradhvaj & Swastika Chakravorty & Anu Rammohan, 2019. "World health status 1950-2015: Converging or diverging," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Shawn F. Dorius, 2008. "Global Demographic Convergence? A Reconsideration of Changing Intercountry Inequality in Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(3), pages 519-537, September.
    8. Martin Gächter & Engelbert Theurl, 2010. "Convergence of the Health Status at the Local Level: Empirical Evidence from Austria," NRN working papers 2010-09, The Austrian Center for Labor Economics and the Analysis of the Welfare State, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.

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