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Can Economic Growth Be Sustained? A Post‐Malthusian Perspective

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  • Vernon W. Ruttan

Abstract

In the United States and in other economically advanced countries, rapid productivity growth in the material‐producing sectors has been the major source of productivity growth for the entire economy. Over the next several decades, continuing structural change will result in a decline in employment in the material‐producing sectors to near or below 10 percent. A simulation exercise is employed to demonstrate how continued slow productivity growth in the service sectors dampens the rate of productivity growth of the entire economy. It is unlikely that productivity growth in the US economy can be sustained at anywhere near the relatively high rate achieved since the mid‐1990s.

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  • Vernon W. Ruttan, 2002. "Can Economic Growth Be Sustained? A Post‐Malthusian Perspective," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 28(1), pages 1-12, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:28:y:2002:i:1:p:1-12
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00001.x
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    1. Neves Sequeira Tiago & Reis Ana B, 2006. "Human Capital Composition, R&D and the Increasing Role of Services," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-25, June.

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