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Impact of higher oil prices on the Chinese economy

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  • Sana Zaouali
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    Abstract

    The demand for oil in China has dramatically increased in the last years. Today, China is the second largest consumer of oil in the world behind the United States. This growing demand in oil comes in a context of steep international price hikes for oil. With its increasing oil consumption, China today plays a major role on the international oil markets, and a change in its consumption could seriously destabilise these markets. Moreover, today China occupies a preponderant place on the international scene, and a large drop in its economic activity could significantly affect world growth. It, therefore, is important for us to ask what the impact of the current increase in oil prices on the Chinese economy might be. The aim of this article is to conduct a quantitative analysis on the potential impact of the rise in oil prices on the Chinese economy. The macroeconomic and sectoral effects are evaluated with the help of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Two scenarios were formulated: the first assuming a US $10 increase in international oil prices; the second, a $25 increase. Copyright 2007 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in its journal OPEC Review.

    Volume (Year): 31 (2007)
    Issue (Month): 3 (09)
    Pages: 191-214

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:31:y:2007:i:3:p:191-214

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    Cited by:
    1. Özlale, Ümit & Pekkurnaz, Didem, 2010. "Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4489-4496, August.
    2. Vaqar Ahmed & Cathal O'Donoghue, 2009. "External Shocks in a Small Open Economy: A CGE-Microsimulation Analysis," Working Papers 0142, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2009.
    3. Gnansounou, Edgard & Dong, Jun, 2010. "Vulnerability of the economy to the potential disturbances of energy supply: A logic-based model with application to the case of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2846-2857, June.
    4. Hassan, Syeda Anam & Zaman, Khalid, 2012. "Effect of oil prices on trade balance: New insights into the cointegration relationship from Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2125-2143.

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