IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/opecrv/v30y2006i3p171-186.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Returns and volatility in the NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures market

Author

Listed:
  • Apostolos Serletis
  • Asghar Shahmoradi

Abstract

In this paper we use autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity‐type models to investigate the determinants of returns and volatility in the New York Mercantile Exchange Henry Hub natural gas futures contract market. Using daily data for the period that natural gas has been traded on the exchange, we find significant evidence of seasonal and open interest effects in both, returns and volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Apostolos Serletis & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2006. "Returns and volatility in the NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures market," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 30(3), pages 171-186, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:30:y:2006:i:3:p:171-186
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0076.2006.00167.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0076.2006.00167.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1468-0076.2006.00167.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gerald D. Gay & Tae‐Hyuk Kim, 1987. "An investigation into seasonality in the futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 169-181, April.
    2. Apostolos Serletis & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2007. "Futures Trading and the Storage of North American Natural Gas," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 8, pages 82-87, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    5. Christopher K. Ma & Jeffrey M. Mercer & Matthew A. Walker, 1992. "Rolling over futures contracts: A note," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 203-217, April.
    6. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    7. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    8. Andrew J. Foster, 1995. "Volume‐volatility relationships for crude oil futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(8), pages 929-951, December.
    9. Nikolaos T. Milonas, 1986. "Price variability and the maturity effect in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 443-460, September.
    10. Nikolaos T. Milonas, 1991. "Measuring seasonalities in commodity markets and the half‐month effect," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 331-345, June.
    11. Richard Deaves & Itzhak Krinsky, 1992. "Risk Premiums and Efficiency in the Market for Crude Oil Futures," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 93-118.
    12. Day, Theodore E & Lewis, Craig M, 1997. "Initial Margin Policy and Stochastic Volatility in the Crude Oil Futures Market," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 303-332.
    13. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    14. Apostolos Serletis, 2007. "Is There an East-West Split in North American Natural Gas Markets?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 6, pages 59-72, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    15. Mohammad Majand & Kenneth Yung, 1991. "A GARCH examination of the relationship between volume and price variability in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 613-621, October.
    16. David Kenyon & Kenneth Kling & Jim Jordan & William Seale & Nancy McCabe, 1987. "Factors affecting agricultural futures price variance," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(1), pages 73-91, February.
    17. William M. Malick & Ronald W. Ward, 1987. "Stock effects and seasonality in the fcoj futures basis," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 157-167, April.
    18. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. van Goor, Harm & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "Modeling natural gas price volatility: The case of the UK gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 126-134.
    2. Zuzanna Karolak, 2021. "Energy prices forecasting using nonlinear univariate models," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(6), pages 577-598.
    3. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2016. "The behaviour mechanism analysis of regional natural gas prices: A multi-scale perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 266-277.
    4. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2018. "On the interdependence of natural gas and stock markets under structural breaks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 149-161.
    5. Naomi Boyd, 2015. "Market making and risk management in options markets," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-27, April.
    6. Liang, Chao & Xia, Zhenglan & Lai, Xiaodong & Wang, Lu, 2022. "Natural gas volatility prediction: Fresh evidence from extreme weather and extended GARCH-MIDAS-ES model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    7. Sun, Mei & Wang, Yaqi & Gao, Cuixia, 2016. "Visibility graph network analysis of natural gas price: The case of North American market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 1-11.
    8. Li, Yan & Chevallier, Julien & Wei, Yigang & Li, Jing, 2020. "Identifying price bubbles in the US, European and Asian natural gas market: Evidence from a GSADF test approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Ibrahim A. Onour, 2009. "Natural gas markets: how sensitive are they to crude oil price changes?," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 33(2), pages 111-124, June.
    10. Yadong Pei & Chiou-Jye Huang & Yamin Shen & Mingyue Wang, 2023. "A Novel Model for Spot Price Forecast of Natural Gas Based on Temporal Convolutional Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-15, February.
    11. Wang, Zuyi & Kim, Man-Keun, 2022. "Price bubbles in oil & gas markets and their transfer," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chris Motengwe & Angel Pardo, 2015. "A Study of Seasonality on the Safex Wheat Market," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(4), pages 45-72, November.
    2. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911.
    3. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
    4. Madarassy Akin, Rita, 2003. "Maturity Effects in Futures Markets: Evidence from Eleven Financial Futures Markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1n04g31b, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    5. Alizadeh, Amir H. & Tamvakis, Michael, 2016. "Market conditions, trader types and price–volume relation in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 134-149.
    6. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871.
    7. Tse, Yiuman & Booth, G. Geoffrey, 1996. "Common volatility and volatility spillovers between U.S. and Eurodollar interest rates: Evidence from the futures market," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 299-312, August.
    8. Wang, Gaowen, 2006. "A note on unit root tests with heavy-tailed GARCH errors," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(10), pages 1075-1079, May.
    9. Tim Bollerslev & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Financial Market Efficiency Tests," NBER Working Papers 4108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Apostolos Serletis & Anastasios Malliaris & Melvin Hinich & Periklis Gogas, 2012. "Episodic Nonlinearity in Leading Global Currencies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 337-357, April.
    11. Berger, Jurij & Dalheimer, Bernhard & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2021. "Effects of variable EU import levies on corn price volatility," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:66:n:3:a:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    14. Manuel Vega & José L. Alvarez, "undated". "Tipos de cambio flexibles y volatilidad: Las regularidades empíricas de las observaciones diarias," Studies on the Spanish Economy 116, FEDEA.
    15. Stavros Degiannakis & Evdokia Xekalaki, 2005. "Predictability and model selection in the context of ARCH models," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 55-82, January.
    16. Matos, Paulo & Beviláqua, Giovanni & Filho, Jaime, 2012. "Previsão do câmbio real-dólar sob um arcabouço de apreçamento de ativos," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 66(3), October.
    17. Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi, 2002. "ARCH versus information-based variances: evidence from the Tokyo Stock Market," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 215-231, April.
    18. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    19. Rodt, Marc & Schäfer, Klaus, 2005. "Absicherung von Strompreisrisiken mit Futures: Theorie und Empirie," Freiberg Working Papers 2005/18, TU Bergakademie Freiberg, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    20. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2019. "A Survey on Efficiency and Profitable Trading Opportunities in Cryptocurrency Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, April.
    21. Afxentiou, Panos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2000. "Output growth and the variability of exports and imports growth: international evidence from Granger causality tests," MPRA Paper 1750, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:opecrv:v:30:y:2006:i:3:p:171-186. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/%28ISSN%291753-0237 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.