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Beware of ‘Good’ Outliers and Overoptimistic Conclusions

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  • Catherine Dehon
  • Marjorie Gassner
  • Vincenzo Verardi

Abstract

The main goal of this paper is to warn practitioners of the danger of neglecting outliers in regression analysis, in particular, good leverage points (i.e. points lying close to the regression hyperplane but outlying in the x‐dimension). While the types of outliers which do influence regression estimates (vertical outliers and bad leverage points) have been extensively investigated, good leverage points have been largely ignored, probably because they do not affect the estimated regression parameters. However, their effect on inference is far from negligible. We propose a step‐by‐step procedure to identify and treat all types of outliers. The paper of Persson and Tabellini [American Economic Review (2004) Vol. 94, pp. 25–46] linking the degree of proportionality of an electoral system to the size of government is discussed to illustrate how the choice of a measure and the existence of atypical observations may substantially influence results.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Dehon & Marjorie Gassner & Vincenzo Verardi, 2009. "Beware of ‘Good’ Outliers and Overoptimistic Conclusions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(3), pages 437-452, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:71:y:2009:i:3:p:437-452
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2009.00543.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 1999. "The size and scope of government:: Comparative politics with rational politicians," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 699-735, April.
    2. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2005. "The Economic Effects of Constitutions," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661926, December.
    3. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, 2004. "Constitutional Rules and Fiscal Policy Outcomes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 25-45, March.
    4. Hausman, Jerry, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    5. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2002. "Do constitutions cause large governments? Quasi-experimental evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 908-918, May.
    6. Catherine Dehon & Marjorie Gassner & Vincenzo Verardi, 2005. "Robustness or Efficiency, A Test to Solve the Dilemma," Econometrics 0508011, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Christophe Croux & Stefan Aelst & Catherine Dehon, 2003. "Bounded influence regression using high breakdown scatter matrices," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 55(2), pages 265-285, June.
    8. Daron Acemoglu, 2005. "Constitutions, Politics and Economics: A Review Essay on Persson and Tabellini's "The Economic Effect of Constitutions"," NBER Working Papers 11235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Zaman, Asad & Rousseeuw, Peter J. & Orhan, Mehmet, 2001. "Econometric applications of high-breakdown robust regression techniques," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 1-8, April.
    10. Cristophe Croux & Catherine Dehon, 2003. "Estimators of the multiple correlation coefficient: Local robustness and confidence intervals," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 315-334, July.
    11. Jonathan R. W. Temple, 1998. "Robustness tests of the augmented Solow model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 361-375.
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    3. Badi H. Baltagi & Georges Bresson, 2012. "A Robust Hausman–Taylor Estimator," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Jerry Hausman, pages 175-214, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    4. Gabriela V. Cohen Freue & Hernan Ortiz-Molina & Ruben H. Zamar, 2013. "A Natural Robustification of the Ordinary Instrumental Variables Estimator," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 69(3), pages 641-650, September.
    5. Verardi Vincenzo & Wagner Joachim, 2011. "Robust Estimation of Linear Fixed Effects Panel Data Models with an Application to the Exporter Productivity Premium," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(4), pages 546-557, August.
    6. Kaffine, Daniel T. & Davis, Graham A., 2017. "A multi-row deletion diagnostic for influential observations in small-sample regressions," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 133-145.
    7. Goetghebuer, Tatiana, 2011. "Productive inefficiency in patriarchal family farms: evidence from Mali," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011 34, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    8. Biewen, Martin & Weiser, Constantin, 2011. "A New Approach to Testing Marginal Productivity Theory," IZA Discussion Papers 6113, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Salois, Matthew J., 2012. "Obesity and diabetes, the built environment, and the ‘local’ food economy in the United States, 2007," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 35-42.
    10. Liebermann, Joelle, 2011. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Bond Yields: (In)Stabilities over Time and Relative Importance," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    11. Dehon, Catherine & Gassner, Marjorie & Verardi, Vincenzo, 2009. "A Hausman-type test to detect the presence of influential outliers in regression analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 64-67, October.
    12. Liebermann, Joelle, 2010. "Real-time nowcasting of GDP: Factor model versus professional forecasters," MPRA Paper 28819, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Maria Vera-Cabello & Marcos Sanso-Navarro & Fernando Sanz, 2011. "The impact of the American Civil War on city growth," ERSA conference papers ersa11p1514, European Regional Science Association.
    14. Matthew, Salois, 2010. "Obesity and Diabetes, the Built Environment, and the ‘Local’ Food Economy," MPRA Paper 27945, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Darwin Ugarte Ontiveros & Ruth Marcela Aparicio de Guzmán, 2020. "Técnicas Robustas y No Robustas para Identificar Outliers en el Análisis de Regresión," Investigación & Desarrollo 0320, Universidad Privada Boliviana, revised Nov 2020.
    16. Vincenzo Verardi & Joachim Wagner, 2021. "Productivity Premia for German Manufacturing Firms Exporting to the Euro-area and Beyond: First Evidence from Robust Fixed Effects Estimations," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Joachim Wagner (ed.), MICROECONOMETRIC STUDIES OF FIRMS’ IMPORTS AND EXPORTS Advanced Methods of Analysis and Evidence from German Enterprises, chapter 7, pages 87-109, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

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