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Regression‐based Tests for a Change in Persistence

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen J. Leybourne
  • Tae‐Hwan Kim
  • A. M. Robert Taylor

Abstract

We show that the minimal forward (reverse) recursive unit tests of Banerjee, Lumsdaine and Stock [Journal of Business and Economics Statistics (1992) Vol. 10, pp. 271–288] are consistent against the alternative of a change in persistence from I(0) to I(1) [I(1) to I(0)]. However, these statistics are also shown to diverge for series which are I(0) throughout. Consequently, a rejection by these tests does not necessarily imply a change in persistence. We propose a further test, based on the ratio of these statistics, which is consistent against changes either from I(0) to I(1), or vice versa, yet does not over‐reject against constant I(0) series. Consistent breakpoint estimators are proposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen J. Leybourne & Tae‐Hwan Kim & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Regression‐based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 595-621, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:68:y:2006:i:5:p:595-621
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0084.2006.00179.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Signaling asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2012, Bank of Finland.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:2018_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2016. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 27/2016, Bank of Finland.
    4. Chen, Xi & Funke, Michael, 2013. "Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 223, pages 39-48, February.
    5. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Real-Time Warning Signs of Emerging and Collapsing Chinese House Price Bubbles," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 223(1), pages 39-48, February.
    6. Antonio Noriega & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2013. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1243-1265, June.
    7. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2016. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," Research Discussion Papers 27/2016, Bank of Finland.
    8. Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Persistence change tests and shifting stable autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 44-49, April.
    9. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Detecting asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number sm2012_047.
    10. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2008. "A Note on the Dynamics of Persistence in US Inflation," Working Papers 2008-12, Banco de México.
    11. Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
    12. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2017. "Use of unit root methods in early warning of financial crises," ESRB Working Paper Series 45, European Systemic Risk Board.
    13. Virtanen, Timo & Tölö, Eero & Virén, Matti & Taipalus, Katja, 2018. "Can bubble theory foresee banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 66-81.
    14. repec:zbw:bofitp:2012_027 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Signaling asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Research Discussion Papers 7/2012, Bank of Finland.
    16. Funke, Michael & Tsang, Andrew & Zhu, Linxu, 2018. "Not all cities are alike: House price heterogeneity and the design of macro-prudential policies in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2012_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Funke, Michael & Tsang, Andrew & Zhu, Linxu, 2018. "Not all cities are alike: House price heterogeneity and the design of macro-prudential policies in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 18/2018, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    19. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2016_027 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Si Zhang & Hao Jin & Menglin Su, 2024. "Modified Block Bootstrap Testing for Persistence Change in Infinite Variance Observations," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-25, January.
    21. Xi Chen & Michael Funke, 2013. "Renewed Momentum in the German Housing Market: Boom or Bubble?," CESifo Working Paper Series 4287, CESifo.

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