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Specification and Testing of Markov Chain Models: An Application to Convergence in the European Union

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  • Fingleton, Bernard

Abstract

Recently Markov chains have been used to analyze the convergence properties of national and regional per capita incomes. This paper highlights their applicability and importance for economists and illustrates some of the potential pitfalls associated with this approach. The empirical conclusions, based on data for the period 1975 to 1993, are that the regions of the European Union appear to be converging to a form of equilibrium characterized by stable proportions of economies at a range of output per capita levels, and by a permanent chance of mobility between all levels, consistent with the existence of multiple steady states across countries. Copyright 1997 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 59 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 385-403

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:59:y:1997:i:3:p:385-403

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Cited by:
  1. Anna Decewicz, 2013. "Modele Markowa w analizie dynamiki zróżnicowania regionalnego dochodu w krajach UE," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 30, pages 75-88.
  2. Paul David & Francesco Rullani, 2007. "Dynamics of Innovation in an “Open Source” Collaboration Environment: Lurking, Laboring and Launching FLOSS Projects on SourceForge," Discussion Papers 07-022, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
  3. Roberto Zelli & Maria Grazia Pittau, 2006. "Empirical evidence of income dynamics across EU regions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 605-628.
  4. Roberto Basile, 2010. "Intra-distribution dynamics of regional per-capita income in Europe: evidence from alternative conditional density estimators," Statistica, Department of Statistics, University of Bologna, vol. 70(1), pages 3-22.
  5. Magrini, Stefano, 2004. "Regional (di)convergence," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 62, pages 2741-2796 Elsevier.
  6. Paul Bishop & Peter Gripaios, 2006. "Earnings convergence in UK counties: a distribution dynamics approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 29-33.
  7. Sueli Moro & Reginaldo J. Santos, 2013. "The characteristics and evolution of the Brazilian spatial urban system: empirical evidences for the long-run, 1970-2010," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 474, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  8. Kurt Geppert & Michael Happich & Andreas Stephan, 2004. "Regional disparities in the European Union: Convergence and Agglomeration," ERSA conference papers ersa04p219, European Regional Science Association.
  9. George Hammond, 2004. "Metropolitan/non-metropolitan divergence: A spatial Markov chain approach," Papers in Regional Science, Springer, vol. 83(3), pages 543-563, 07.
  10. LE GALLO, Julie, 2001. "Space-time analysis of GDP disparities among European regions: A Markov chains approach," LATEC - Document de travail - Economie (1991-2003) 2001-06, LATEC, Laboratoire d'Analyse et des Techniques EConomiques, CNRS UMR 5118, Université de Bourgogne.
  11. Sergio Rey, 2014. "Rank-based Markov chains for regional income distribution dynamics," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 115-137, April.
  12. Torres Solé, Teresa & Allepuz Capdevila, Rafael, 2009. "El desarrollo humano: perfiles y perspectivas futuras /Profiles and Prospects of the Human Development," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 27, pages 545-562, Agosto.
  13. Frank Bickenbach & Eckhardt Bode, 2001. "Markov or Not Markov � This Should Be a Question," Kiel Working Papers 1086, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  14. Paul Bishop & Peter Gripaios, 2005. "Patterns Of Persistence And Mobility In Gdp Per Head Across Gb Counties," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 96(5), pages 529-540, December.
  15. Jesus Lopez-Rodriguez & Andres Faiña, 2009. "Regional Policy and Convergence in Europe: The Case of Backward Regions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1046-1053.
  16. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Pollard, 2006. "Distribution dynamics and convergence in Latin America: A non-parametric analysis," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 68-95, March.
  17. Bode, Eckhardt & Bickenbach, Frank, 2002. "Markov or not Markov - this should be a question," ERSA conference papers ersa02p024, European Regional Science Association.
  18. George Hammond & Eric Thompson, 2002. "Mobility and Modality Trends in US State Personal Income," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(4), pages 375-387.
  19. Jonathan Jones & Colin Wren, 2009. "The dynamics of FDI location: a markov analysis for British regions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 33497, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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