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Revisions to the Components of the Trade Balance for the United Kingdom

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  • Patterson, K D

Abstract

It is well known that the time series of the components of the trade balance undergo substantial revisions. This note summarizes the magnitude of revisions to appropriately scaled versions of the current price series for the exports of goods, the exports of services, the imports of goods, and the imports of services. The revisions are proportionately greatest for the services series with, for example, maximum positive revisions of +18.5 percent and +15.3 percent for the exports and imports series, respectively. The statistical evidence suggests the possibility of a structural break in the revisions process around 1977 for the exports of goods and imports of goods series; and, in the later period, the author cannot reject the hypothesis of unbiasedness for these two series. However, the author does firmly reject this hypothesis for the two services series. A fairly simple bias correction could be applied.to the biased series. Copyright 1992 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

Suggested Citation

  • Patterson, K D, 1992. "Revisions to the Components of the Trade Balance for the United Kingdom," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(1), pages 103-120, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:54:y:1992:i:1:p:103-20
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    Cited by:

    1. Patterson, K. D., 2003. "Exploiting information in vintages of time-series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 177-197.
    2. Christis Tombazos, 2003. "New light on the 'impressionistic view' of the balancing item in Australia's balance of payments accounts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1369-1378.
    3. Patterson, K. D., 1995. "Forecasting the final vintage of real personal disposable income: A state space approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 395-405, September.

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