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Survey Expectations vs. Rational Expectations in the Estimation of a Dynamic Model: Demand for Labour in Finnish Manufacturing

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  • Ilmakunnas, Pekka

Abstract

Rational expectations of the errors-in-variables type and expectations series quantified from qualitative business survey data are compared in the estimation of a dynamic labor-demand model for the Finnish manufacturing. Replacing future expected values of variables by realizations creates a serially correlated error structure in a rational expectations model. It is shown that when survey expectations are used, this kind of serially correlated error does not appear. Therefore, the estimation of the model is simpler. The empirical results show that the dynamics implied by a simple rational expectations version of the model are not supported by the data. Survey expectations lead to realistic estimates of the parameters of the model. Copyright 1989 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 51 (1989)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
Pages: 297-314

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:51:y:1989:i:3:p:297-314

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Cited by:
  1. Kangasharju, Aki & Pehkonen, Jaakko, 1999. "Employment-output link in Finland: evidence from regional-level data," ERSA conference papers ersa99pa304, European Regional Science Association.
  2. Aki Kangasharju & Jaakko Pehkonen, 2001. "Employment-output link in Finland : evidence from regional data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 41-50, Spring.
  3. Jaakko Pehkonen, 1994. "Testing weak exogeneity by multivariate cointegration techniques : the demand for labour in Finnish manufacturing," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 108-119, Autumn.

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