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Consumer Confidence Indices And Short-Term Forecasting Of Consumption

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Author Info
ALI AL-EYD
RAY BARRELL
E. PHILIP DAVIS

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Abstract

There is growing interest in examining the short-term link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption. Copyright © 2009 National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2008.02089.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 77 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
Pages: 96-111
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Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:77:y:2009:i:1:p:96-111

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1463-6786

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-22.

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