Consumer Confidence Indices And Short-Term Forecasting Of Consumption
AbstractThere is growing interest in examining the short-term link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption. Copyright � 2009 National Institute of Economic and Social Research. Journal compilation � 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and The University of Manchester.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School.
Volume (Year): 77 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 (01)
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- Ali Al-Eyd & Ray Barrell & E. Philip Davis, 2008. "Consumer Confidence Indices And Short-Term Forecasting Of Consumption," NIESR Discussion Papers 304, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
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- Emrah İ. Çevik & Turhan Korkmaz & Erdal Atukeren, 2012. "Business confidence and stock returns in the USA: a time-varying Markov regime-switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 299-312, February.
- Bruno, Giancarlo, 2012. "Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach," MPRA Paper 41312, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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