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The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: Some Results from a Macroeconometric Model

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  • Richard Arden
  • Steve Cook
  • Sean Holly
  • Paul Turner

Abstract

This paper offers evidence of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on economic activity. First, asymmetric adjustment is captured in three macroeconomic relationships for investment, the consumer price deflator, inventories and house prices. These relationships are then embedded in a small macroeconometric model of the UK economy. Simulations on this model allow us to trace through the interactions of these asymmetries so that a monetary shock—measured by a change in interest rates—affects output and inflation in the short run in ways dependent both upon the sign of the shock and the initial state of the economy. A monetary easing has significantly larger effects on inflation when the economy is close to capacity compared with when it is in recession. These effects are captured by intrinsic asymmetries in the model, due to the use of the logarithm of interest rates and the logarithm of unemployment in the wage equation, as well as the asymmetries coming from the non‐linearities which we have introduced explicitly.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Arden & Steve Cook & Sean Holly & Paul Turner, 2000. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: Some Results from a Macroeconometric Model," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(4), pages 419-441, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:4:p:419-441
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.00203
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    Cited by:

    1. Mark A. Thompson, 2006. "Asymmetric adjustment in the prime lending–deposit rate spread," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(4), pages 323-329.
    2. Steven Cook, 2003. "A Note on Business Cycle Non-Linearity in U. S. Consumption," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6, pages 247-253, November.
    3. Cook, S., 2004. "On the Detection of Business Cycles Asymmetry in 22 Countries, 1870-1994," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(1).
    4. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Chen, Li-Hsueh & Yuan, Yuan, 2011. "Asymmetric convergence and risk shift in the TED spreads," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 277-297.
    5. Steven Cook, 2000. "An International Perspective on Asymmetries in Consumers' Expenditure," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 283-293, September.
    6. Su, Chi Wei & Chang, Hsu Ling, 2010. "Asymmetric Adjustment in the Lending-Deposit Rate Spread: Evidence from Eastern European Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 165-175, July.
    7. Steven Cook, 2006. "A Disaggregated Analysis of Asymmetrical Behaviour in the UK Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 43(11), pages 2067-2074, October.
    8. Hsu-Ling Chang & Chi-Wei Su, 2010. "The Lending-Deposit Rate Relationship in Eastern European Countries: Evidence from the Rank Test for Non-linear Cointegration," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 534-544, December.
    9. Manuchehr Irandoust, 2020. "The effectiveness of monetary policy and output fluctuations: An asymmetric analysis," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 161-181, June.
    10. Davide Furceri, 2002. "Risk-sharing e architettura istituzionale delle politiche di stabilizzazione nell'UME: aspetti metodologici e verifica empirica," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 92(6), pages 175-210, November-.
    11. Davide Furceri, 2004. "Does the EMU Need a Fiscal Transfer Mechanism?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 73(3), pages 418-428.
    12. Corrado Luisa & Holly Sean & Turner Paul, 2002. "Nonlinearities and Inactivity in Aggregate Investment: Some Theoretical Analysis and Time-Series Evidence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 1-21, January.
    13. Cook, Steven, 2003. "A Note on Business Cycle Non-Linearity in U. S. Consumption," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 6(2), pages 1-7, November.
    14. Steven Cook & Alan Speight, 2006. "Time deformation in UK consumers' expenditure: an empirical analysis of highly disaggregated data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 471-478.
    15. Luisa Corrado & Sean Holly, 2006. "The Linearisation and Optimal Control of Large Non-Linear Rational Expectations Models by Persistent Excitation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 28(2), pages 139-153, September.
    16. Thompson, Mark A., 2006. "Asymmetric adjustment in the prime lending-deposit rate spread," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 323-329.
    17. Steven Cook & Alan Speight, 2007. "Time Irreversibility in Consumers' Expenditure: An Analysis of Disaggregated Data," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 561-575.

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