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Differential Mortality and the Design of the Italian System of Public Pensions

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  • Graziella Caselli
  • Franco Peracchi
  • Elisabetta Barbi
  • Rosa Maria Lipsi

Abstract

This paper considers the issue of actuarial fairness of the new Italian public pension system in view of the recent trends in old-age mortality and the survival differences by gender, birth cohort and region of residence.3 Section 2 reviews the secular trends in elderly mortality in Italy, separately for men and women, and draws some implications for long-run demographic projections. It also considers regional differences in survival and their evolution over the last three decades. Section 3 evaluates the impact, on the conversion factors introduced by the Dini reform, of a further decline in elderly mortality over the next few decades, focusing on the period when the reform will be fully phased in. It also computes the conversion factors using a close approximation to the unknown formula employed in the Dini reform but allowing for gender- and region-specific survival probabilities. The distance between the original conversion factors and those obtained by allowing for differential survival across socio-demographic groups provides a quantitative assessment of the implicit redistributive impacts of the reform. Finally, Section 4 offers some conclusions.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by CEIS in its journal Labour.

Volume (Year): 17 (2003)
Issue (Month): SpecialIssue (08)
Pages: 45-78

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Handle: RePEc:bla:labour:v:17:y:2003:i:specialissue:p:45-78

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Cited by:
  1. Carlo Mazzaferro & Marco Savegnago, 2008. "Differential Mortality and Redistribution in the Italian Notional Defined Contribution System," Center for the Analysis of Public Policies (CAPP) 0047, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica.
  2. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi, 2008. "Youth Unemployment and Retirement of the Elderly: the Case of Italy," Working Papers 2008_45, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

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