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Is Anywhere Stuck in a Malthusian Trap?

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  • Charles Kenny

Abstract

The key features of the Malthusian model are that (i) income determines population growth, with rising wages increasing survival rates and (ii) there is a vital factor of production (land) which is fixed, implying decreased returns to scale for all other factors. The equilibrium state in such a model is a population living on subsistence incomes. The country‐level analysis in this paper suggests that (i) the link between income and population growth is (almost) everywhere broken and (ii) there is little evidence of declining returns to scale because of constraints imposed by land carrying capacity anywhere. Population dynamics are being driven by non‐income factors in a manner that is reducing population growth rates everywhere. At the same time, output is increasing everywhere, in a manner inconsistent with significantly declining returns to scale based on land being a vital factor of production.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Kenny, 2010. "Is Anywhere Stuck in a Malthusian Trap?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 192-205, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:63:y:2010:i:2:p:192-205
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6435.2010.00469.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrey Korotayev & Julia Zinkina, 2015. "East Africa in the Malthusian Trap?," Journal of Developing Societies, , vol. 31(3), pages 385-420, September.
    2. Andrey Korotayev & Julia Zinkina, 2015. "East africa in the Malthusian trap? A statistical analysis of financial, economic, and demographic indicators," Papers 1503.08441, arXiv.org.
    3. da Silva Francisco, António A., 2017. "‘Gerontogrowth’ and population ageing in Africa and the Global AgeWatch Index," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 78-89.

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