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Expected Extent and Potential Duration of the World Import Crunch

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  • Peter A.G. Van Bergeijk

Abstract

Against the background of a collapse of world trade and predictions in March 2009 by IMF, WTO and World Bank of a relatively quick rebound, this paper analyses how major post 1980 financial crises have impacted on import volumes of individual countries. The article finds that on average imports contracted by 25% during a period of 5 quarters, but argues that this provides a minimum estimate only for the depth and duration of the present world trade collapse.

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  • Peter A.G. Van Bergeijk, 2009. "Expected Extent and Potential Duration of the World Import Crunch," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(4), pages 479-487, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:62:y:2009:i:4:p:479-487
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6435.2009.00446.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2017. "One is not enough! An economic history perspective on world trade collapses and deglobalization," ISS Working Papers - General Series 98695, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2015. "The heterogeneity of world trade collapses," ISS Working Papers - General Series 606, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    3. van Bergeijk, P.A.G., 2011. "One is not enough!," ISS Working Papers - General Series 22964, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.

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