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Static Effect Of E. C. Enlargement On Trade Flows In Manufactured Products

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  • Mordechai E. Kreinin

Abstract

This paper employs several methods to estimate the trade creation and diversion effects of EC enlargement. Treating the original EEC and EFTA each as one country it compares total and external imports and the ratios of these imports to consumption between 1970/71 and 1977/78. The comparable figures for U. S., Canada and Japan are used as a ‘normalizer’. Based on several approaches, 1978 trade creation is estimated at $28 billion and diversion at $5 billion, with an implied substitution elasticity between European and non‐European sources of 3.2. The results are consistent with independent estimates constructed for the period 1959/60 to 1977/78; namely, the two stages of integration combined. Dieser Beitrag verwendet mehrere Methoden, um die Entstehung von Handelsbeziehungen und Verteilungseffekten infolge der Vergrösserung der Europäischen Gemeinschaft zu schätzen. Die ursprüngliche EWG und die alte EFTA je als ein Land betrachtet, sind die gesamten Importe, diejenigen von ausserhalb und die entsprechenden, auf den Konsum bezogenen Importquoten zwischen 1970/71 und 1977/78 miteinander verglichen worden. Die analogen Zahlen für die Vereinigten Staaten, für Kanada und für Japan werden als Richtgrössen benützt. Mit verschiedenen Ansätzen werden, unter der Annahme einer Substitutionselastizität von ‐3,2 zwischen europäischen und nicht‐europäischen Quellen, der Umfang des Handels auf 28 Mrd. $ und die Ausbreitungseffekte auf 5 Mrd. $ geschatzt. Die Ergebnisse sind konsistent mit unabhängigen Schätzungen, die für die Periode 1959/60 bis 1977/78 gemacht worden sind, bei denen also beide Stufen der Integration kombiniert worden sind. L'auteur utilise plusieurs méthodes pour estimer les effets de création et de diversion des courants commerciaux consécutifs ȩ l'élargissement du Marché Commun. Traitant la CEE et l'AELE originelles chacune comme un pays, il compare les importations totales et externes et les ratios de ces importations ȩ la consom‐mation entre 1970/71 et 1977/78. Les données comparables pour les U. S. A., le Canada, et le Japon sont utilisées comme ≪reference≫. Grace ȩ différentes ap‐proches, il estime pour 1978, les nouveaux échanges ȩ 28 milliards de dollars et la diversion des échanges ȩ 5 milliards de dollars, avec une élasticité de substitution induite entre les sources européennes et non‐européennes de ‐3,2. Ces résultats sont cohérents avec des estimations indépendantes élaborées pour la période 1959/60‐1977/78: c'est‐ȩ‐dire combinant les deux stades de l'intégration.

Suggested Citation

  • Mordechai E. Kreinin, 1981. "Static Effect Of E. C. Enlargement On Trade Flows In Manufactured Products," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 60-71, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:34:y:1981:i:1:p:60-71
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6435.1981.tb02653.x
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    Cited by:

    1. de Boyrie Maria E. & Kreinin Mordechai, 2016. "Regional Integration in Latin America," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 293-311, June.

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