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Commitment and Lapse Behavior in Long‐Term Insurance: A Case Study

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  • Jean Pinquet
  • Montserrat Guillén
  • Mercedes Ayuso

Abstract

This paper presents a case study of a portfolio of individual long-term insurance contracts sold by a Spanish mutual company. We describe the risk levels, the rating structure and the implied cross-subsidies on a portfolio of policies providing health, life and long-term care insurance. We show evidence of reclassification risk through the history of disability spells. We also analyze the lapse behavior and seek to provide a rationale for the portfolio's dynamics. Lastly, we draw conclusions regarding the design of such contracts.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1539-6975.2011.01420.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by The American Risk and Insurance Association in its journal The Journal of Risk and Insurance.

Volume (Year): 78 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 983-1002

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jrinsu:v:78:y:2011:i:4:p:983-1002

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References

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  1. Dionne, G. & Doherty, N., 1991. "Adverse Selection, Commitment and Renegotiation : Extention to and Evidence From Insurance Markets," Cahiers de recherche 9134, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  2. Jeffrey R. Brown & Amy Finkelstein, 2007. "Why is the market for long-term care insurance so small?," NBER Chapters, in: Trans-Atlantic Public Economics Seminar (TAPES), Public Policy and Retirement, pages 1967-1991 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Glenn Daily & Igal Hendel & Alessandro Lizzeri, 2008. "Does the Secondary Life Insurance Market Threaten Dynamic Insurance?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 151-56, May.
  4. Kunreuther, Howard & Pauly, Mark, 1985. "Market equilibrium with private knowledge : An insurance example," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 269-288, April.
  5. Wenan Fei & Claude Fluet & Harris Schlesinger, 2007. "Uncertain Bequest Needs and Long-Term Insurance Contracts," Cahiers de recherche 0742, CIRPEE.
  6. Igal Hendel & Alessandro Lizzeri, 2003. "The Role Of Commitment In Dynamic Contracts: Evidence From Life Insurance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(1), pages 299-327, February.
  7. Montserrat Guill�n & Jean Pinquet, 2008. "Long-Term Care: Risk Description of a Spanish Portfolio and Economic Analysis of the Timing of Insurance Purchase," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 33(4), pages 659-672, October.
  8. Michael K. McShane & Larry A. Cox, 2009. "Issuance Decisions and Strategic Focus: The Case of Long-Term Care Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 87-108.
  9. Jeffrey R. Brown & Amy Finkelstein, 2009. "The Private Market for Long-Term Care Insurance in the United States: A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 5-29.
  10. Pauly, Mark V & Kunreuther, Howard & Hirth, Richard, 1995. "Guaranteed Renewability in Insurance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 143-56, March.
  11. J. Pinquet, 1997. "Experience rating through heterogeneous models," THEMA Working Papers 97-25, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  12. David C. Webb, 2009. "Asymmetric Information, Long-Term Care Insurance, and Annuities: The Case for Bundled Contracts," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 53-85.
  13. H. J. Smoluk, 2009. "Long-Term Disability Claims Rates and the Consumption-to-Wealth Ratio," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 109-131.
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Cited by:
  1. Dorothea Diers & Martin Eling & Christian Kraus & Andreas Reuß, 2012. "Market-consistent embedded value in non-life insurance: how to measure it and why," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 13(4), pages 320-346.

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