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Economic Fundamentals In Local Housing Markets: Evidence From U.S. Metropolitan Regions

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Author Info
Min Hwang
John M. Quigley

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Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of national and regional economic conditions on outcomes in the single-family housing market: housing prices, vacancies, and residential construction activity. Our three-equation model confirms the importance of changes in regional economic conditions, income, and employment on local housing markets. The results also provide the first detailed evidence on the importance of vacancies in the owner-occupied housing market on housing prices and supplier activities. The results also document the importance of variations in materials, labor and capital costs, and regulation in affecting new supply. Simulation exercises, using standard impulse response models, document the lags in market responses to exogenous shocks and the variations arising from differences in local parameters. The results also suggest the importance of local regulation in affecting the pattern of market responses to regional income shocks. Copyright Blackwell Publishing, Inc. 2006

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9787.2006.00480.x
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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 46 (2006)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 425-453
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:46:y:2006:i:3:p:425-453

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kearl, J R, 1979. "Inflation, Mortgages, and Housing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 1115-38, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Rosenthal, Stuart S, 1999. "Housing Supply: The Other Half of the Market a Note from the Editor," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 5-7, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Poterba, James M, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 99(4), pages 729-52, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Blume, Marshall E, 1980. "Stock Returns and Dividend Yields: Some More Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(4), pages 567-77, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Follain, James R. & Velz, Orawin T., 1995. "Incorporating the Number of Existing Home Sales into a Structural Model of the Market for Owner-Occupied Housing," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 93-117, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Gabriel, Stuart A. & Nothaft, Frank E., 2001. "Rental Housing Markets, the Incidence and Duration of Vacancy, and the Natural Vacancy Rate," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 121-149, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven Saks, 2003. "Why is Manhattan So Expensive? Regulation and the Rise in House Prices," NBER Working Papers 10124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Goetzmann, William N & Jorion, Philippe, 1995. "A Longer Look at Dividend Yields," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 483-508, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Arnott, Richard, 1989. "Housing Vacancies, Thin Markets, and Idiosyncratic Tastes," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 5-30, February.
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  11. Christopher J. Mayer & C. Tsuriel Somerville, . "Land Use Regulation and New Construction," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers 331, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Patric H. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor & Raymond Y.C. Tse, 2000. "Estimating the Rental Adjustment Process," NBER Working Papers 7912, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Clapp John M. & Giaccotto Carmelo, 1994. "The Influence of Economic Variables on Local House Price Dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 161-183, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Eubank, Arthur A, Jr & Sirmans, C F, 1979. "The Price Adjustment Mechanism for Rental Housing in the United States," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 93(1), pages 163-68, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Geraint Johnes & Thomas Hyclak, . "House Prices and Regional Labor Markets," Working Papers ec15/93, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
  20. Johnes, Geraint & Hyclak, Thomas, 1994. "House Prices, Migration, and Regional Labor Markets," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 312-329, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Read, Colin, 1993. "Tenants' search and vacancies in rental housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 171-183, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Gyourko, Joseph & Voith, Richard, 1992. "Local market and national components in house price appreciation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 52-69, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Pain, Nigel & Westaway, Peter, 1997. "Modelling structural change in the UK housing market: A comparison of alternative house price models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 587-610, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. de Leeuw, Frank, 1971. "The Demand for Housing: A Review of Cross-Section Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(1), pages 1-10, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Malpezzi, Stephen, 1999. "A Simple Error Correction Model of House Prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-62, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Meese Richard & Wallace Nancy, 1994. "Testing the Present Value Relation for Housing Prices: Should I Leave My House in San Francisco?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 245-266, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  27. Dougherty, Ann & Van Order, Robert, 1982. "Inflation, Housing Costs, and the Consumer Price Index," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(1), pages 154-64, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  28. Goodman, John L, Jr, 1998. "Aggregation of Local Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 43-53, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  29. Baffoe-Bonnie, John, 1998. "The Dynamic Impact of Macroeconomic Aggregates on Housing Prices and Stock of Houses: A National and Regional Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 179-97, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  30. Read, Colin, 1997. "Vacancies and Rent Dispersion in a Stochastic Search Model with Generalized Tenant Demand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 223-37, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions," NBER Working Papers 11643, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Ryan R. Brady, 2007. "Measuring the persistence of spatial autocorrelation: How long does the spatial connection between housing markets last?," Departmental Working Papers 19, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Christian A. L. Hilber & Christopher J. Mayer, 2004. "Why Do Households Without Children Support Local Public Schools?," NBER Working Papers 10804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Raven E. Saks, 2005. "Job creation and housing construction: constraints on metropolitan area employment growth," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-49, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2005. "Urban Growth and Housing Supply," NBER Working Papers 11097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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