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Price Dynamics in the International Wheat Market: Modeling with Error Correction and Directed Acyclic Graphs

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Author Info

  • David A Bessler
  • Jian Yang
  • Metha Wongcharupan

Abstract

In this paper we examine dynamic relationships among wheat prices from five countries for the years 1981-1999. Error correction models and directed acyclic graphs are employed with observational data to sort-out the dynamic causal relationships among prices from major wheat producing regions: Canada, the European Union, Argentina, Australia, and the United States. An ambiguity related to the cyclic or acyclic flow of information between Canada and Australia is uncovered. We condition our analysis on the assumption that information flow is acyclic. The empirical results show that Canada and the U.S. are leaders in the pricing of wheat in these markets. The U.S. has a significant effect on three markets excluding Canada. Copyright Blackwell Publishing, Inc. 2003

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 43 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-33

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:43:y:2003:i:1:p:1-33

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-4146

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Cited by:
  1. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Payne, Warren S., 2004. "Dynamic Relationships Among U.S. Wheat-Related Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(01), April.
  2. Jian Yang & Jin Zhang & David J. Leatham, 2003. "Price and Volatility Transmission in International Wheat Futures," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 4(1), pages 37-50, May.
  3. Du, Wen, 2004. "International Market Integration Under Wto: Evidence In The Price Behaviors Of Chinese And Us Wheat Futures," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20115, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  4. Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan & Brummer, Bernhard & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan & Ferto, Imre, 2008. "Wheat market integration between Hungary and Germany," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44171, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Arnade, Carlos A., 2006. "Shock Absorbing Prices, a Look at Cattle and Feed," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21408, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  6. Lee, Andrew C. & Kim, Man-Keun, 2004. "Causality Among Fed Cattle Market Variables: Directed Acyclic Graphs Analysis Of Captive Supply," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20124, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  7. Zohrabyan, Tatevik & Bessler, David A., 2006. "On Price Dynamics in International Wheat Markets," 2006 Conference (50th), February 8-10, 2006, Sydney, Australia 137782, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  8. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2006. "Market Delineation and Price Leadership in the World Wheat Market: A Cointegration Analysis," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(2), October.
  9. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Bernanke Structural VAR Methods: The Impacts of High Soy Meal and Soybean Prices," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 35(03), November.
  10. Li, Yarui & Woodard, Joshua D. & Leatham, David J., 2013. "Causality among Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: A Directed Acyclic Graph Approach," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 45(04), November.
  11. Babula, Ronald A. & Newman, Douglas & Rogowsky, Robert A., 2006. "A Dynamic Model of U.S. Sugar-Related Markets: A Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 37(02), July.
  12. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Reeder, John & Somwaru, Agapi, 2004. "Modeling U.S. Soy-Based Markets with Directed Acyclic Graphs and Time Series Econometrics: Evaluating the U.S. Market Impacts of High Soy Meal Prices," Working Paper ID Series 15885, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries.
  13. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Rogowsky, Robert A., 2005. "Dynamic Economic Relationships Among U.S. Soy Product Markets: Using a Cointegrated Vector Autoregression Approach with Directed Acyclic Graphs," Working Paper ID Series 15880, United States International Trade Commission, Office of Industries.

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