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A Study of the Role of Regionalization in the Generation of Aggregation Error in Regional Input –Output Models

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  • Michael L. Lahr
  • Benjamin H. Stevens

Abstract

Although the need for aggregation in input –output modelling has diminished with the increases in computing power, an alarming number of regional studies continue to use the procedure. The rationales for doing so typically are grounded in data problems at the regional level. As a result many regional analysts use aggregated national input –output models and trade –adjust them at this aggregated level. In this paper, we point out why this approach can be inappropriate. We do so by noting that it creates a possible source of model misapplication (i.e., a direct effect could appear for a sector where one does not exist) and also by finding that a large amount of error (on the order of 100 percent) can be induced into the impact results as a result of improper aggregation. In simulations, we find that average aggregation error tends to peak at 81 sectors after rising from 492 to 365 sectors. Perversely, error then diminishes somewhat as the model size decreases further to 11 and 6 sectors. We also find that while region – and sector –specific attributes influence aggregation error in a statistically significantly manner, their influence on the amount of error generally does not appear to be large.

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  • Michael L. Lahr & Benjamin H. Stevens, 2002. "A Study of the Role of Regionalization in the Generation of Aggregation Error in Regional Input –Output Models," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 477-507, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:42:y:2002:i:3:p:477-507
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9787.00268
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    Cited by:

    1. Hairui Wei & Ming Dong & Shuyu Sun, 2010. "Inoperability input‐output modeling (IIM) of disruptions to supply chain networks," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(4), pages 324-339, December.
    2. Ashkan Masouman & Charles Harvie, 2020. "Forecasting, impact analysis and uncertainty propagation in regional integrated models: A case study of Australia," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(1), pages 65-83, January.
    3. G. Lindberg & P. Midmore & Y. Surry, 2012. "Agriculture’s Inter-industry Linkages, Aggregation Bias and Rural Policy Reforms," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 552-575, September.
    4. Tony Flegg & Leonardo J. Mastronardi & Carlos A. Romero, 2015. "Evaluating the FLQ and AFLQ formulae for estimating regional input coefficients: empirical evidence for the province of C¨®rdoba, Argentina," Working Papers 20151508, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    5. Michael R. Greenberg & Karen Lowrie & Henry Mayer & Tayfur Altiok, 2011. "Risk‐Based Decision Support Tools: Protecting Rail‐Centered Transit Corridors from Cascading Effects," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(12), pages 1849-1858, December.
    6. Joost R. Santos, 2006. "Inoperability input‐output modeling of disruptions to interdependent economic systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(1), pages 20-34, March.
    7. Xesús Pereira-López & Napoleón Guillermo Sánchez-Chóez & Melchor Fernández-Fernández, 2021. "Performance of bidimensional location quotients for constructing input–output tables," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Beynon, Malcolm J. & Munday, Max, 2008. "Considering the effects of imprecision and uncertainty in ecological footprint estimation: An approach in a fuzzy environment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 373-383, October.
    9. repec:rri:wpaper:201003 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Anthony T. Flegg & Leonardo J. Mastronardi & Carlos A. Romero, 2016. "Evaluating the FLQ and AFLQ formulae for estimating regional input coefficients: empirical evidence for the province of Córdoba, Argentina," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 21-37, March.
    11. Greenberg, Michael & Mantell, Nancy & Lahr, Michael & Frisch, Michael & White, Keith & Kehler, David, 2005. "Evaluating the economic effects of a new state-funded school building program: the prevailing wage issue," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 33-45.
    12. Umed Temurshoev, 2015. "Uncertainty treatment in input-output analysis," Working Papers 2015-004, Universidad Loyola Andalucía, Department of Economics.
    13. Gabela, Julio Gustavo Fournier, 2020. "On the accuracy of gravity-RAS approaches used for inter-regional trade estimation: evidence using the 2005 inter-regional input–output table of Japan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 32(4), pages 521-539.
    14. Michael R. Greenberg & Michael Lahr & Nancy Mantell, 2007. "Understanding the Economic Costs and Benefits of Catastrophes and Their Aftermath: A Review and Suggestions for the U.S. Federal Government," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 83-96, February.
    15. Christa Court & Randall W. Jackson, 2010. "Time Dynamics and the Introduction of New Technologies within IO Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2010-03, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    16. Xueting Zhao, 2014. "Disaggregating Input-Output Models," Working Papers Technical Document 2014-0, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    17. Gordon Mulligan & Randall Jackson & Amanda Krugh, 2013. "Economic base multipliers: a comparison of ACDS and IMPLAN," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(3), pages 289-303, August.
    18. Rodolphe Buda, 2008. "Two Dimensional Aggregation Procedure: An Alternative to the Matrix Algebraic Algorithm," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 31(4), pages 397-408, May.
    19. Ali Jalili, 2005. "Impacts of Aggregation on Relative Performances of Nonsurvey Updating Techniques And Intertemporal Stability of Input–Output Coefficients," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 147-165, June.

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