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Progressive Taxation, Tax Exemption, and Irreversible Investment under Uncertainty

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  • LUIS H. R. ALVAREZ
  • ERKKI KOSKELA

Abstract

We analyze the impact of progressive taxation on irreversible investment under uncertainty. We show that if tax exemption is lower than sunk cost, higher tax rate will decelerate optimal investment by increasing the optimal investment threshold, while if tax exemption exceeds sunk cost, three different regimes arise. For “small” volatilities the optimal investment threshold is a positive function of volatility, but independent of tax rate. For “medium” volatilities it is independent of both tax rate and volatility. Finally, for “high” volatilities the optimal investment threshold depends positively on volatility, but negatively on tax rate so that we have “tax paradox”.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis H. R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2008. "Progressive Taxation, Tax Exemption, and Irreversible Investment under Uncertainty," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 10(1), pages 149-169, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jpbect:v:10:y:2008:i:1:p:149-169
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9779.2008.00356.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Luis H. R. Alvarez & Vesa Kanniainen, 1997. "Valuation of Irreversible Entry Options under Uncertainty and Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series 144, CESifo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth-Sloane, 2016. "Does Capital Tax Uncertainty Delay Irreversible Risky Investment?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6046, CESifo.
    2. Shuang Li & Haijun Wang, 2023. "Robust irreversible investment strategy with ambiguity to jump and diffusion risk," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 645-665, September.
    3. Meißner, Fabian & Schneider, Georg & Sureth, Caren, 2013. "The impact of corporate taxes and flexibility on entrepreneurial decisions with moral hazard and simultaneous firm and personal level taxation," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 141, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    4. Ramón E. López & Pablo Gutiérrez Cubillos & Eugenio Figueroa, 2020. "The Tax Paradox and Weak Tax Neutrality," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(3), pages 1150-1169, January.
    5. Niemann, Rainer & Sureth, Caren, 2016. "Does capital tax uncertainty delay irreversible risky investment?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 209, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    6. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 100-108, January.
    7. Chen, An & Hieber, Peter & Sureth, Caren, 2022. "Pay for tax certainty? Advance tax rulings for risky investment under multi-dimensional tax uncertainty," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 273, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    8. Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth-Sloane, 2019. "Investment timing effects of wealth taxes under uncertainty and irreversibility," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 89(4), pages 385-415, June.
    9. Wong, Kit Pong, 2009. "Progressive taxation, tax exemption, and corporate liquidation policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 295-299, March.
    10. Fahr, René & Janssen, Elmar & Sureth, Caren, 2014. "Can tax rate increases foster investment under entry and exit flexibility? Insights from an economic experiment," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 166, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    11. Chien-Chieh Huang & Wei-Wei Lee & Pai-Ta Shih, 2011. "Fiscal Policy and Stimuli to R&D Investment with Uncertainty," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 2(2), pages 55-65, October.
    12. Ortmann, Regina, 2015. "Uncertainty in weighting formulary apportionment factors and its impact on after-tax income of multinational groups," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 184, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    13. Daniel Dreßler & Michael Overesch, 2013. "Investment impact of tax loss treatment—empirical insights from a panel of multinationals," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 20(3), pages 513-543, June.
    14. Claudia Keser & Gerrit Kimpel & Andreas Oestreicher, 2016. "Would a CCCTB mitigate profit shifting?," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-29, CIRANO.
    15. Alaa El-Shazly, 2009. "Investment Under Tax Policy Uncertainty: A Neoclassical Approach," Public Finance Review, , vol. 37(6), pages 732-749, November.
    16. Niemann, Rainer & Sureth-Sloane, Caren, 2015. "Investment effects of wealth taxes under uncertainty and irreversibility," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 192, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    17. Keser, Claudia & Kimpel, Gerrit & Oestreicher, Andreas, 2014. "The CCCTB option: An experimental study," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 199, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    18. Niemann, Rainer & Sureth, Caren, 2009. "Investment effects of capital gains taxation under simultaneous investment and abandonment flexibility," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 77, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    19. Mehrmann, Annika & Schneider, Georg & Sureth, Caren, 2012. "Asymmetric taxation of profits and losses and its influence on investment timing: Paradoxical effects of tax increases," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 134, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    20. Claudia Keser & Gerrit Kimpel & Andreas Oestreicher, 2014. "The CCCTB option – an experimental study," CIRANO Working Papers 2014s-24, CIRANO.
    21. Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth-Sloane, 2015. "Investment Effects of Wealth Taxes under Uncertainty and Irreversibility," CESifo Working Paper Series 5610, CESifo.
    22. Keser, Claudia & Kimpel, Gerrit & Oestreicher, Andreas, 2014. "The CCCTB option an experimental study," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100490, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    23. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 100-108.
    24. Azevedo, Alcino & Pereira, Paulo J. & Rodrigues, Artur, 2021. "Optimal timing and capacity choice with taxes and subsidies under uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

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