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Bayesian modelling of catch in a north-west Atlantic fishery

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  • Carmen Fernández
  • Eduardo Ley
  • Mark F. J. Steel

Abstract

We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used and the mesh size of the nets) are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log-catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to the prediction of catches for single and aggregated ships. Copyright 2002 Royal Statistical Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Royal Statistical Society in its journal Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series C (Applied Statistics).

Volume (Year): 51 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 257-280

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssc:v:51:y:2002:i:3:p:257-280

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  1. Carmen Fernandez & E Ley & Mark F J Steel, 2004. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian models averaging," ESE Discussion Papers 66, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  2. Carmen Fernandez & Eduardo Ley & Mark F. J. Steel, 2001. "Model uncertainty in cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(5), pages 563-576.
  3. Min, C.K. & Zellner, A., 1992. ""Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Methods for Combining Models and Forecasts with Applications to Forecasting International Growth Rates"," Papers 90-92-23, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
  4. Eva Ferreira & Fernando Tusell, 1996. "Un modelo aditivo semiparamétrico para estimación de capturas: el caso de las pesquerías de Terranova," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 20(1), pages 143-157, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Abidoye, Babatunde & Herriges, Joseph A., 2010. "Model Uncertainty in Characterizing Recreation Demand," Staff General Research Papers 32028, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Theo Eicher & Jeff Begun, 2008. "In Search of a Sulphur Dioxide Environmental Kuznets Curve: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Papers UWEC-2007-19-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  3. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2010. "Model Averaging In Economics," Working Papers wp2010_1008, CEMFI.
  4. Irwin Guttman & Daniel Peña & M Dolores Redondas, 2003. "A Bayesian Approach for Predicting with Polynomial Regresión of Unknown Degree," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws032104, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.

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