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Good randomized sequential probability forecasting is always possible

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Author Info
Vladimir Vovk
Glenn Shafer
Abstract

Building on the game theoretic framework for probability, we show that it is possible, using randomization, to make sequential probability forecasts that will pass any given battery of statistical tests. This result, an easy consequence of von Neumann's minimax theorem, simplifies and generalizes work by earlier researchers. Copyright 2005 Royal Statistical Society.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-9868.2005.00525.x
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Article provided by Royal Statistical Society in its journal Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B.

Volume (Year): 67 (2005)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 747-763
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssb:v:67:y:2005:i:5:p:747-763

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  1. Alvaro Sandroni & Wojciech Olszewski, 2008. "Manipulability of Future-Independent Tests," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-014, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Alvaro Sandroni & Wojciech Olszewski, 2008. "Falsifiability," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-016, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
  3. Colin Stewart, 2009. "Nonmanipulable Bayesian Testing," Working Papers tecipa-360, University of Toronto, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alvaro Sandroni & Wojciech Olszewski, 2008. "Strategic Manipulation of Empirical Tests," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-015, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Feinberg, Yossi & Stewart, Colin, 2007. "Testing Multiple Forecasters," Research Papers 1957, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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