Bayes model averaging with selection of regressors
AbstractWhen a number of distinct models contend for use in prediction, the choice of a single model can offer rather unstable predictions. In regression, stochastic search variable selection with Bayesian model averaging offers a cure for this robustness issue but at the expense of requiring very many predictors. Here we look at Bayes model averaging incorporating variable selection for prediction. This offers similar mean-square errors of prediction but with a vastly reduced predictor space. This can greatly aid the interpretation of the model. It also reduces the cost if measured variables have costs. The development here uses decision theory in the context of the multivariate general linear model. In passing, this reduced predictor space Bayes model averaging is contrasted with single-model approximations. A fast algorithm for updating regressions in the Markov chain Monte Carlo searches for posterior inference is developed, allowing many more variables than observations to be contemplated. We discuss the merits of absolute rather than proportionate shrinkage in regression, especially when there are more variables than observations. The methodology is illustrated on a set of spectroscopic data used for measuring the amounts of different sugars in an aqueous solution. Copyright 2002 Royal Statistical Society.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Statistical Society in its journal Journal Of The Royal Statistical Society Series B.
Volume (Year): 64 (2002)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 12 Errol Street, London EC1Y 8LX, United Kingdom
Web page: http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/rssb
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Ouysse, Rachida & Kohn, Robert, 2010. "Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in the arbitrage pricing theory model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3249-3268, December.
- Theo S. Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Adrian E. Raftery, 2011.
"Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 30-55, January/F.
- Theo Eicher & Chris Papageogiou & Adrian E Raftery, 2007. "Default Priors and Predictive Performance in Bayesian Model Averaging, with Application to Growth Determinants," Working Papers UWEC-2007-25-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2008. "Forecasting in vector autoregressions with many predictors," MPRA Paper 21122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- ter Braak, Cajo J.F., 2006. "Bayesian sigmoid shrinkage with improper variance priors and an application to wavelet denoising," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1232-1242, November.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Andros Kourtellos & Chih Ming Tan, 2005. "How Robust Are the Linkages Between Religiosity and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0510, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
- Nott, David J. & Leng, Chenlei, 2010. "Bayesian projection approaches to variable selection in generalized linear models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(12), pages 3227-3241, December.
- Simila, Timo & Tikka, Jarkko, 2007. "Input selection and shrinkage in multiresponse linear regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 406-422, September.
- Chen, Kun & Jiang, Wenxin & Tanner, Martin A., 2010. "A note on some algorithms for the Gibbs posterior," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(15-16), pages 1234-1241, August.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.