Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions
AbstractWe develop a method for the derivation of expert-based stochastic population forecasts. The full probability distribution of forecasts is specified by expert opinions on future developments, elicited conditional on the realization of high, central, low scenarios. The procedure is applied to forecast the Italian population, using scenarios from the Italian National Statistical Office (ISTAT) and the Statistical Office of the European Union (EUROSTAT).
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Royal Statistical Society in its journal Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society).
Volume (Year): 175 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (04)
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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0964-1998
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Other versions of this item:
- Francesco C. Billari & Rebecca Graziani & Eugenio Melilli, 2010. "Stochastic population forecasts based on conditional expert opinions," Working Papers 033, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
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- Matteo Gomellini & Cormac O' Grada, 2011. "Outward and Inward Migrations in Italy: A Historical Perspective," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 08, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
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