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Comparing the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift for Surprises Calculated from Analyst and Time Series Forecasts

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  • JOSHUA LIVNAT
  • RICHARD R. MENDENHALL
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    Abstract

    Post-earnings announcement drift is the tendency for a stock's cumulative abnormal returns to drift in the direction of an earnings surprise for several weeks following an earnings announcement. We show that the drift is significantly larger when defining the earnings surprise using analysts' forecasts and actual earnings from I/B/E/S than when using a time series model based on Compustat earnings data. Neither Compustat's policy of restating earnings nor the inclusion of "special items" in reported earnings contribute significantly to the disparity in drift magnitudes. Rather, our results suggest that this disparity is attributable to differences between analyst forecasts and those of time-series models-or at least to factors correlated with these differences. Further, we document that analyst forecasts lead to return patterns around future earnings announcements that differ from those observed when using time-series models, suggesting that the two types of surprises may capture somewhat different forms of mispricing. Copyright 2006 The Institute of Professional Accounting, University of Chicago.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Accounting Research.

    Volume (Year): 44 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 1 (03)
    Pages: 177-205

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:joares:v:44:y:2006:i:1:p:177-205

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    Cited by:
    1. Sandip Dhole & Sagarika Mishra & Ananda M Pal, . "Further Evidence on the Importance of Analysts’ Cash Flow Forecasts," Financial Econometics Series 2013_01, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
    2. Battalio, Robert H. & Lerman, Alina & Livnat, Joshua & Mendenhall, Richard R., 2012. "Who, if anyone, reacts to accrual information?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 205-224.
    3. Truong, Cameron & Corrado, Charles & Chen, Yangyang, 2012. "The options market response to accounting earnings announcements," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-450.
    4. Min, Byoung-Kyu & Kim, Tong Suk, 2012. "Are good-news firms riskier than bad-news firms?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 1528-1535.
    5. Higgins, Huong, 2013. "Can securities analysts forecast intangible firms’ earnings?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 155-174.
    6. Perotti, Pietro, 2010. "Order aggressiveness as a metric to assess the usefulness of accounting information," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 306-333, September.
    7. Lensberg, Terje & Schenk-Hoppé, Klaus Reiner & Ladley, Dan, 2012. "Costs and Benefits of Speculation," Discussion Papers 2012/12, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
    8. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    9. Moshirian, Fariborz & Nguyen, Huong Giang (Lily) & Pham, Peter Kien, 2012. "Overnight public information, order placement, and price discovery during the pre-opening period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2837-2851.
    10. Henderson, Brian J. & Marks, Joseph M., 2013. "Predicting forecast errors through joint observation of earnings and revenue forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4265-4277.
    11. Truong, Cameron, 2010. "Post earnings announcement drift and the roles of drift-enhanced factors in New Zealand," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 139-157, April.
    12. Richardson, Scott & Tuna, Irem & Wysocki, Peter, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: A review of recent research advances," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 410-454, December.
    13. : Constantinos Antoniou & Emilios Galariotis & Daniel Read, 2012. "Ambiguity Aversion, Company Size and the Pricing of Earnings Forecasts," Working Papers wpn12-01, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    14. Kenneth Lorek & Donald Pagach, 2012. "The impact of accruals and lines of business on analysts’ earnings forecast superiority," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 293-308, October.
    15. Norio Kitagawa & Akinobu Shuto, 2013. "Credibility of Management Earnings Forecasts and Future Returns," Discussion Paper Series DP2013-30, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.

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