Estimating Expected Excess Returns Using Historical And Option-Implied Volatility
AbstractWe test the relation between expected and realized excess returns for the S&P 500 index from January 1994 through December 2003 using the proportional reward-to-risk measure to estimate expected returns. When risk is measured by historical volatility, we find no relation between expected and realized excess returns. In contrast, when risk is measured by option-implied volatility, we find a positive and significant relation between expected and realized excess returns in the 1994-1998 subperiod. In the 1999-2003 subperiod, the option-implied volatility risk measure yields a positive, but statistically insignificant, risk-return relation. We attribute this performance difference to the fact that, in the 1994-1998 subperiod, return volatility was lower and the average return was much higher than in the 1999-2003 subperiod, thereby increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in the latter subperiod. 2006 The Southern Finance Association and the Southwestern Finance Association.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association in its journal Journal of Financial Research.
Volume (Year): 29 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0270-2592
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Bertrand B. Maillet & Jean-Philippe R. Médecin, 2010. "Extreme Volatilities, Financial Crises and L-moment Estimations of Tail-indexes," Working Papers 2010_10, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Parnes, Dror, 2007. "Time series patterns in credit ratings," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 217-226, December.
- Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George & Tzagkaraki, Emilia, 2008. "Can the evolution of implied volatility be forecasted? Evidence from European and US implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2401-2411, November.
- Corrado, Charles J. & Jordan, Bradford D. & Miller, Thomas Jr. & Stansfield, John J., 2001. "Repricing and employee stock option valuation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1059-1082, June.
- Dunis, Christian & Kellard, Neil M. & Snaith, Stuart, 2013. "Forecasting EUR–USD implied volatility: The case of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4943-4957.
- Dror Parnes, 2011. "Developments in corporate creditworthiness around ownership events," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 7(4), pages 377-396, September.
- repec:hal:journl:halshs-00425585 is not listed on IDEAS
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.