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Sensitivity Of Investor Reaction To Market Direction And Volatility: Dividend Change Announcements

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  • Diane Scott Docking
  • Paul D. Koch

Abstract

We examine whether investor reactions are sensitive to the recent direction or volatility of underlying market movements. We find that dividend change announcements elicit a greater change in stock price when the nature of the news (good or bad) goes against the grain of the recent market direction during volatile times. For example, announcements to lower dividends elicit a significantly greater decrease in stock price when market returns have been up and more volatile. Similarly, announcements to raise dividends tends to elicit a greater increase in stock price when market returns have been normal or down and more volatile, although this latter tendency lacks statistical significance. We suggest an explanation for these results that combines the implications of a dynamic rational expectations equilibrium model with behavioral considerations that link the responsiveness of investors to market direction and volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Diane Scott Docking & Paul D. Koch, 2005. "Sensitivity Of Investor Reaction To Market Direction And Volatility: Dividend Change Announcements," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 21-40, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:28:y:2005:i:1:p:21-40
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-6803.2005.00112.x
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    1. John H. Boyd & Jian Hu & Ravi Jagannathan, 2005. "The Stock Market's Reaction to Unemployment News: Why Bad News Is Usually Good for Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 649-672, April.
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    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7l10qorvrv8tuafch6e0ert238 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Milan Bouchet Valat & Paul Hubert & Mathilde Le Moigne & Yaovi Sélom Agbetonyo & Emmanuelle Fromont & Jean-Laurent Viviani & Antoine Parent & Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière & Séverine Lemière, 2018. "Varia," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7l10qorvrv8, Sciences Po.
    3. Grigaliuniene, Zana & Celov, Dmitrij & Hartwell, Christopher A., 2020. "The more the Merrier? The reaction of euro area stock markets to new members," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    4. Asem, Ebenezer & Alam, Shamsul, 2015. "Market movements and the excess cash theory," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 140-149.
    5. Petr Jakubik & Saida Teleu, 2022. "Suspension of insurers’ dividends as a response to the COVID-19 crisis: evidence from the European insurance equity market," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(4), pages 785-816, October.
    6. Ron Bird & Daniel Choi & Danny Yeung, 2014. "Market uncertainty, market sentiment, and the post-earnings announcement drift," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 45-73, July.
    7. P. Srinivasan, 2012. "Determinants of Equity Share Prices in India: A Panel Data Approach," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 15(45), pages 205-228, December.
    8. Laivi Laidroo & Zana Grigaliuniene, 2012. "Testing for asymmetries in price reactions to quarterly earnings announcements on Tallinn, Riga and Vilnius Stock Exchanges during 2000-2009," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 61-86, July.
    9. Francois Collet & Déborah Philippe, 2014. "From Hot Cakes to Cold Feet: A Contingent Perspective on the Relationship between Market Uncertainty and Status Homophily in the Formation of Alliances," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 406-432, May.
    10. Abdul‐Rahman Khokhar & Sudipto Sarkar, 2020. "Market response to dividend change announcements: unregulated versus regulated US firms," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(2), pages 1759-1799, June.
    11. Han, Dun & Han, Liyan & Wu, Yanran & Liu, Pei, 2021. "Dividend or growth funds: What drives individual investors' choices?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    12. Yao Zheng & Peihwang Wei & Eric Osmer, 2022. "The relation between earnings and price momentum: Does it vary across regimes?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1145-1213, April.
    13. Jais, Mohamad & Abdul Karim, Bakri & Funaoka, Kenta & Abidin, Azlan Zainol, 2009. "Dividend Announcements and Stock Market Reaction," MPRA Paper 19779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jeffrey Jones & Jenny Gu & Pu Liu, 2014. "Do dividend initiations signal a reduction in risk? Evidence from the option market," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 143-158, January.
    15. Díaz, Antonio & Jareño, Francisco, 2009. "Explanatory factors of the inflation news impact on stock returns by sector: The Spanish case," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 349-368, September.
    16. Neenu C & T Mohamed Nishad, 2022. "Behavior of Financial Markets Around News Announcements: A Review Based on Bibliometric Analysis of Scientific Fields," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 14(2), pages 143-172, December.
    17. Ming‐Cheng Wu & Erin H. C. Kao & Hung‐Gay Fung, 2008. "Impact Of Dividend‐Protected Employee Stock Options On Payout Policies: Evidence From Taiwan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 431-452, October.
    18. Borhan Sayedy & Mohd Zulkifli Ghazali, 2017. "The Impact of Microeconomic Variables on Stock Return by Moderating of Money Supply," Asian Social Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(12), pages 191-191, December.
    19. Arman Kosedag & Jinhu Qian, 2009. "Do Dividend Clienteles Explain Price Reactions To Dividend Changes?," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 3(1), pages 47-57.
    20. Antonio Díaz & Francisco Jareño, 2013. "Inflation news and stock returns: market direction and flow-through ability," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 775-798, April.
    21. Petr Jakubik, 2020. "The impact of EIOPA statement on insurers dividends: evidence from equity market," EIOPA Financial Stability Report - Thematic Articles 18, EIOPA, Risks and Financial Stability Department.
    22. Ebenezer Asem & Shamsul Alam, 2014. "Cash Hoards And Changes In Investors' Outlook," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 119-137, February.
    23. Lu, Xian-wei & Fung, Hung-Gay & Su, Zhong-qin, 2018. "Information leakage, site visits, and crash risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 487-507.
    24. A. Vijayakumar, 2010. "Effect of Financial Performance on Share Prices in the Indian Corporate Sector: An Empirical Study," Management and Labour Studies, XLRI Jamshedpur, School of Business Management & Human Resources, vol. 35(3), pages 369-381, August.

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