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Forecasting the Treasury Bill Rate: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach

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  • Chiang, Thomas C
  • Kahl, Douglas R

Abstract

In this paper a time-varying coefficient model is developed using a Kalman filter methodology to test the term structure of interest rates. Since the model is characterized by a continuing revision of the estimates when new information arrives, it is capable of capturing the dynamic interest rate behavior, thereby increasing the forecasting accuracy of the future spot rates. With the constant expectations hypothesis rejected, the forecasting accuracy is substantially increased.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association in its journal Journal of Financial Research.

Volume (Year): 14 (1991)
Issue (Month): 4 (Winter)
Pages: 327-36

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfnres:v:14:y:1991:i:4:p:327-36

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0270-2592
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Web page: http://www.southwesternfinance.org/
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Cited by:
  1. Pami Dua, 2008. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Working Papers id:1521, eSocialSciences.
  2. Donald S. Allen & Meenakshi Pasupathy, 1997. "A state space forecasting model with fiscal and monetary control," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1997-017, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.

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