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The Risk-Adjusted Cost of Financial Distress

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  • HEITOR ALMEIDA
  • THOMAS PHILIPPON

Abstract

Financial distress is more likely to happen in bad times. The present value of distress costs therefore depends on risk premia. We estimate this value using risk-adjusted default probabilities derived from corporate bond spreads. For a BBB-rated firm, our benchmark calculations show that the NPV of distress is 4.5% of predistress value. In contrast, a valuation that ignores risk premia generates an NPV of 1.4%. We show that marginal distress costs can be as large as the marginal tax benefits of debt derived by Graham (2000). Thus, distress risk premia can help explain why firms appear to use debt conservatively. Copyright 2007 by The American Finance Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 62 (2007)
Issue (Month): 6 (December)
Pages: 2557-2586
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:62:y:2007:i:6:p:2557-2586

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  10. Martijn Cremers & Joost Driessen & Pascal Maenhout & David Weinbaum, 2004. "Individual Stock-Option Prices and Credit Spreads," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2391, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2005.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Robert S. Pindyck, 2009. "Sunk Costs and Risk-Based Barriers to Entry," NBER Working Papers 14755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," NBER Working Papers 16151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Florina Mocanu, 2009. "Financial Crisis Impact On Construction And Real Estate Sectors In Romania," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 4(3), pages 127-136, September.
  4. Armen Hovakimian & Ayla Kayhan & Sheridan Titman, 2011. "Are Corporate Default Probabilities Consistent with the Static Tradeoff Theory?," NBER Working Papers 17290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: An Exactly Solved Framework for Ten Puzzles in Macro-Finance," NBER Working Papers 13724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ralf Sabiwalsky, 2008. "Nonlinear Modeling of Target Leverage with Latent Determinant Variables – New Evidence on the Trade-off Theory," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-062, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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