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Capital Gains Tax Rules, Tax-loss Trading, and Turn-of-the-year Returns

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James M. Poterba

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Abstract

Changes in the capital gains tax rules facing individual investors do not affect the incentives for "window dressing" by institutional investors, but they can affect the incentives for year-end tax-induced trading by individual investors. Empirical evidence for the 1963 to 1996 period suggests that when the tax law encouraged taxable investors who accrued losses early in the year to realize their losses before year-end, the correlation between early year losses and turn-of-the-year returns was weaker than when the law did not provide such an early realization incentive. These findings suggest that tax-loss trading contributes to turn-of-the-year return patterns. Copyright The American Finance Association 2001.

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Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal The Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 56 (2001)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 353-368
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:56:y:2001:i:1:p:353-368

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-31, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dyl, Edward A, 1977. "Capital Gains Taxation and Year-End Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 165-75, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Michaely, Roni & Vila, Jean-Luc, 1996. "Trading Volume with Private Valuation: Evidence from the Ex-dividend Day," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(2), pages 471-509. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ritter, Jay R, 1988. " The Buying and Selling Behavior of Individual Investors at the Turn of the Year," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 701-17, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Richard Thaler & Robert Vishny, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," NBER Working Papers 3617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Alan J. Auerbach & Leonard E. Burman & Jonathan Siegel, 1998. "Capital Gains Taxation and Tax Avoidance: New Evidence from Panel Data," NBER Working Papers 6399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Lakonishok, Josef & Smidt, Seymour, 1986. " Volume for Winners and Losers: Taxation and Other Motives for Stock Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(4), pages 951-74, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Constantinides, George M. & Ingersoll, Jonathan Jr., 1984. "Optimal bond trading with personal taxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 299-335, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Reinganum, Marc R., 1983. "The anomalous stock market behavior of small firms in January : Empirical tests for tax-loss selling effects," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-104, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Rozeff, Michael S. & Kinney, William Jr., 1976. "Capital market seasonality: The case of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 379-402, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1987. " Further Evidence on Investor Overreaction and Stock Market Seasonalit y," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(3), pages 557-81, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Branch, Ben, 1977. "A Tax Loss Trading Rule," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 50(2), pages 198-207, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. James M. Poterba, 1986. "How Burdensome Are Capital Gains Taxes?," Working papers 410, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  15. Reinganum, Marc R & Shapiro, Alan C, 1987. "Taxes and Stock Return Seasonality: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(2), pages 281-95, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Jones, Charles P & Pearce, Douglas K & Wilson, Jack W, 1987. " Can Tax-Loss Selling Explain the January Effect? A Note," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 453-61, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Zhonglan Dai & Edward Maydew & Douglas A. Shackelford & Harold H. Zhang, 2006. "Capital Gains Taxes and Asset Prices: Capitalization or Lock-In?," NBER Working Papers 12342, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jennergren, L. Peter, 2004. "The Effect on Stock Prices of the Swedish Wealth Tax," Working Paper Series in Business Administration 2004:14, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jennifer L. Blouin & Jana Smith Raedy & Douglas A. Shackelford, 2000. "Capital Gains Holding Periods and Equity Trading: Evidence from the 1998 Tax Act," NBER Working Papers 7827, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Ferhan Salman, 2005. "Information, Capital Gains Taxes & New York Stock Exchange," Working Papers 0513, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  5. Zoran Ivkovich & James Poterba & Scott Weisbenner, 2004. "Tax-Motivated Trading by Individual Investors," NBER Working Papers 10275, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2002. "Tax-Loss Trading and Wash Sales," NBER Working Papers 8745, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Mark Grinblatt & Tobias Moskowitz, 1999. "The Cross Section of Expected Returns and its Relation to Past Returns: New Evidence," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1100, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Richard J. Rendleman, Jr. & Douglas A. Shackelford, 2003. "Diversification and the Taxation of Capital Gains and Losses," NBER Working Papers 9674, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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