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Dividend Surprises Inferred from Option and Stock Prices

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  • Bar-Yosef, Sasson
  • Sarig, Oded H

Abstract

This paper introduces a new method to measure the unexpected component of dividend announcements. While measures used previously were based on various arbitrary models of dividend expectations, the authors' suggested method compares the reaction of stock and option prices to dividend announcements. Their measure is compared to commonly used model-based measures, to a Box-Jenkins time-series-based measure, and to a Value-Line Investor Survey-based measure of dividend surprises. The new measure is more highly correlated with the market's reaction to the announcements than are alternative measures of dividend surprises. The new measure is also shown to be insensitive to the extent to which the options used to identify unexpected dividend announcements are in- or out-of-the-money. Copyright 1992 by American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Bar-Yosef, Sasson & Sarig, Oded H, 1992. "Dividend Surprises Inferred from Option and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1623-1640, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:47:y:1992:i:4:p:1623-40
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    Cited by:

    1. Berezinets, I.V. & Bulatova, L.A. & Ilina, Y. B. & Smirnov, M.V., 2016. "How stock market reacts to dividend surprises: Russian and Indian experience," Working Papers 6437, Graduate School of Management, St. Petersburg State University.
    2. Berezinets, I.V. & Bulatova, L.A. & Ilina, Y.B. & Smirnov, M.V., 2015. "Stock market reaction to dividend surprises: Evidence from Russia," Working Papers 6427, Graduate School of Management, St. Petersburg State University.
    3. Tao, Qizhi & Nan, Runxi & Li, Haoyu, 2016. "Information content of unexpected dividends under a semi-mandatory dividend policy: An empirical study of China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 297-318.
    4. Arman Kosedag & Jinhu Qian, 2009. "Do Dividend Clienteles Explain Price Reactions To Dividend Changes?," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 3(1), pages 47-57.
    5. Christian Andres & André Betzer & Inga van den Bongard & Christian Haesner & Erik Theissen, 2011. "Dividend Announcements Reconsidered - Dividend Changes versus Dividend Surprises," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp11013, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.

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