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Futures Manipulation with "Cash Settlement."

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Author Info
 Kumar, Praveen
Seppi, Duane J
Abstract

This paper investigates the susceptibility of futures markets to price manipulation in a two-period model with asymmetric information and "cash settlement" futures contracts. Without "physical delivery," strategies based on "corners" or "squeezes" are infeasible. However, uninformed investors still earn positive expected profits by establishing a futures position and then trading in the spot market to manipulate the spot price used to compute the cash settlement at delivery. The authors also show that as the number of manipulators grows, profits from manipulation fall to zero. However, even in the limit, manipulation still has a nontrivial impact on market liquidity. More broadly, they interpret manipulation as a form of endogenous "noise trading" which can arise in multiperiod security markets. Copyright 1992 by American Finance Association.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 47 (1992)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1485-502
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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:47:y:1992:i:4:p:1485-502

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  1. Archishman Chakraborty & Bilge Yilmaz, . "Nested Information and Manipulation in Financial Markets," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 6-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Archishman Chakraborty & Bilge Yilmaz, . "Informed Manipulation," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 07-00, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Nevzat Eren & Han N. Ozsoylev, 2008. "Hype and Dump Manipulation," OFRC Working Papers Series 2008fe08, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  4. Cumming, D. & Johan, S.A., 2008. "Global Market Surveillance," Discussion Paper 2008-002, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center. [Downloadable!]
  5. Itay Goldstein & Alexander Gümbel, 2002. "Manipulation, the allocational role of prices and production externalities," OFRC Working Papers Series 2002fe02, Oxford Financial Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ingrid Lo & Stephen G. Sapp, 2007. "Order Aggressiveness and Quantity: How Are They Determined in a Limit Order Market?," Working Papers 07-23, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Avanidhar Subrahmanyam & Sheridan Titman, 1998. "Feedback from Stock Prices to Cash Flows" (formerly called "Real Effects of Financial Market Trading)," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1116, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Matthew Pritsker, 2005. "Large investors: implications for equilibrium asset, returns, shock absorption, and liquidity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-36, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  9. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen Ejerskov & Natacha Valla, 2007. "Manipulation in Money Markets," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 113-148, March. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Andreas Röthig, 2004. "Currency Futures and Currency Crises," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 136, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre (Department of Economics), Technische Universität Darmstadt (Darmstadt University of Technology). [Downloadable!]
  11. Sami Järvinen & Jari Käppi, 2004. "Manipulation of the Bund futures market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 799-808, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Owen Lamont, 2004. "Go Down Fighting: Short Sellers vs. Firms," NBER Working Papers 10659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Sander Harald & Kleimeier Stefanie, 2006. "Interest Rate Pass-Through In the Common Monetary Area of the SACU Countries," Research Memoranda 023, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Helena Veiga & Marc Vorsatz, 2008. "Aggregation and dissemination of information in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws084110, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Christian Ewerhart & Nuno Cassola & Steen Ejerskov & Natacha Valla, 2004. "Sporadic manipulation in money markets with central bank standing facilities," Working Paper Series 399, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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