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The Structure of Spot Rates and Immunization

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Author Info

  • Elton, Edwin J
  • Gruber, Martin J
  • Michaely, Roni

Abstract

Empirical studies of the modern theories of bond pricing typically choose proxies for the state variables in a rather arbitrary fashion. This paper empirically analyzes the question of the optimal spot rates to use as state variables. The authors' findings indicate that the four-year spot rate serves as the best proxy in the one-state-variable model. In the case of the two-state-variables model, the six-year rate and eight-month rate are identified as best. Tests of the out-of-sample prediction ability indicate that their model is superior to F. R. Macaulay's duration model and alternative proxies for state variables. Copyright 1990 by American Finance Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 45 (1990)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 629-42

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:45:y:1990:i:2:p:629-42

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alejandro Balbás & Susana López, 2001. "Financial innovation and arbitrage in the Spanish bond market," Business Economics Working Papers wb010101, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  2. Nawalkha, Sanjay K. & Soto, Gloria M. & Zhang, Jun, 2003. "Generalized M-vector models for hedging interest rate risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1581-1604, August.
  3. Ioannides, Michalis, 2003. "A comparison of yield curve estimation techniques using UK data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-26, January.
  4. Soto, Gloria M., 2004. "Duration models and IRR management: A question of dimensions?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1089-1110, May.
  5. Soto, Gloria M., 2001. "Immunization derived from a polynomial duration vector in the Spanish bond market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 1037-1057, June.
  6. Lekkos, Ilias, 2001. "Factor models and the correlation structure of interest rates: Some evidence for USD, GBP, DEM and JPY," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1427-1445, August.
  7. Edward J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 1999. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-082, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  8. Alejandro Balbas & Esperanza H. Montagut & Maria Jose Perez Fructuoso, 2004. "Hedging bond portfolios versus infinitely many ranked factors of risk," Business Economics Working Papers wb043312, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía de la Empresa.
  9. Carcano, Nicola & Foresi, Silverio, 1997. "Hedging against interest rate risk: Reconsidering volatility-adjusted immunization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 127-141, February.
  10. Sonia Benito Muela, 2005. "Factores comunes en la ETTI española. Un análisis de corto y largo plazo," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 0510, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
  11. Roncoroni, Andrea & Galluccio, Stefano & Guiotto, Paolo, 2010. "Shape factors and cross-sectional risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2320-2340, November.
  12. Ventura Bravo, Jorge Miguel & Pereira da Silva, Carlos Manuel, 2006. "Immunization using a stochastic-process independent multi-factor model: The Portuguese experience," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 133-156, January.
  13. Galluccio, Stefano & Roncoroni, Andrea, 2006. "A new measure of cross-sectional risk and its empirical implications for portfolio risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2387-2408, August.
  14. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J. & Mei, Jianping, 1996. "Return generating process and the determinants of term premiums," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1251-1269, August.
  15. Balbas, Alejandro & Ibanez, Alfredo, 1998. "When can you immunize a bond portfolio?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(12), pages 1571-1595, December.
  16. Eliseo Navarro & Juan M. Nave, 1997. "A two-factor duration model for interest rate risk management," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(1), pages 55-74, January.

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