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Was the Tax-Exempt Bond Market Inefficient or Were Future Expected Tax Rates Negative?

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  • Kochin, Levis A
  • Parks, Richard W
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    Abstract

    This paper shows that the sharp narrowing with maturity of the spread between taxable and tax exempt yields leaves room for tax arbitrage. At times, tax exempt forward rates have exceeded taxable forward rat es. At such times, only expectations of higher taxes on Treasury than on municipal bonds would eliminate profit opportunities. The authors develop the idea of forward tax rates and compute forward tax rates for 1955-84. They outline tax arbitrage mechanisms involving private forward sale of long municipal bonds or the use of the municipal bond futures contract and show the potential profits. Copyright 1988 by American Finance Association.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Finance Association in its journal Journal of Finance.

    Volume (Year): 43 (1988)
    Issue (Month): 4 (September)
    Pages: 913-31

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:4:p:913-31

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    Cited by:
    1. Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason & Roger H. Gordon, 1991. "How Much Do Taxes Discourage Incorporation," NBER Working Papers 3781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Park, Sangkyun, 1997. "The Relationship Between Government Financial Condition and Expected Tax Rates Reflected in Municipal Bond Yields," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 50(1), pages 23-38, March.
    3. Merle Erickson & Austan Goolsbee & Edward Maydew, 2002. "How Prevalent is Tax Arbitrage? Evidence from the Market for Municipal Bonds," NBER Working Papers 9105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Poterba, James M., 1989. "Tax reform and the market for tax-exempt debt," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 537-562, August.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & James M. Poterba, 1996. "Stock Market Yields and the Pricing of Municipal Bonds," NBER Working Papers 5607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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